Coronavirus: ‘Significant level’ of social distancing should be maintained until vaccine developed, says government scientific adviser

Professor Neil Ferguson says ministers need to ‘accelerate’ exit decision from lockdown

The UK will have to maintain a “significant level” of social distancing until a coronavirus vaccine has been developed, a scientific adviser to the government has warned.

Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling of Covid-19 has informed Downing Street’s strategy, insisted that ministers needed to “accelerate” exit decisions from the current lockdown.

The epidemiologist also urged the government to implement the same level of organisation across Whitehall as experienced in preparations for Brexit – another “national emergency”.

His remarks come as Dominic Raab – the foreign secretary deputising for Boris Johnson in the prime minister’s absence – prepares to announce a three-week extension to the severe restrictions on British public life this evening.

Asked about easing the measures, Prof Ferguson told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I think the other thing I would say is that it really requires a single-minded emphasis in government and the health system on scaling up testing and putting in place the ability to track down cases in the community and contact-trace.

“Because without that, our estimates show we have relatively little leeway; if we relax measures too much then we’ll see a resurgence of transmission.

“What we really need is the ability to put something in their place. If we want to reopen schools, let people get back to work, then we need to keep transmission down in another manner.

“And I should say, it’s not going to be going back to normal. We will have to maintain some level of social distancing – a significant level of social distancing – probably indefinitely until we have a vaccine available.”

He said that despite the “billions of pounds per day” cost to the economy – by putting in place infrastructure to tackle the virus – it was a “small price to pay” to tackle the outbreak of the virus.

Pressed on whether the government was moving towards an exit strategy, Prof Ferguson went on: “I’m not completely sure. I would like to see action accelerated. I don’t have a deep insight into what’s going on in government but decisions certainly need to be accelerated and real progress made.

“I would actually say we need to put in place an infrastructure – command and control structure – and novel organisation for this. I’m reminded by the fact we had a department for Brexit for government. That was a major national emergency. We’re faced with something at the moment even larger than Brexit, and yet I don’t see the same evidence for that level of organisation.”

Prof Ferguson added: “There needs to be more coordination I think, yes. That may be going on, I don’t have unique insight, but I think it could be enhanced.”

Pressed on the professor’s comments, the health secretary Matt Hancock told the BBC: “He advises government. He’s not in the government.

“This a really, really important point: how we communicate as a government has a direct impact on the amount of cases we have and therefore the amount of people who die. A direct impact.”

The infectious disease modeller also said he believed the peak of daily infections occurred around “two weeks ago”, but added: “The issue we have is we really see cases in hospitals at the moment – we don’t have community surveillance so that’s delayed for about two weeks.

“But I think all the statistics now are basically pointing in the right direction. What we don’t know is quite how quickly numbers will decline at this point, but numbers of new admissions to hospitals seem to have been declining for over a week at this point. It’s encouraging news – it’s too early to certainly relax.”