Coronavirus: England 'very close' to pandemic peak again within weeks, government scientist warns

Professor Graham Medley backs two-week circuit-breaker to prevent risk of 'healthcare being completely overwhelmed’

England will be “very close” to the peak of the pandemic in April “within two or three weeks”, a leading government scientist is warning.

Professor Graham Medley said the government must take much tougher action – backing a two-week “circuit-breaker” to prevent the risk of “healthcare being completely overwhelmed.

Pointing to the delay between any crackdown and its effect on Covid-19 cases, he said: “We are already going to be very close to where we were in April within two or three weeks.”

Professor Medley, a member of the Sage advisory committee, criticised those who claim a new lockdown would simply be “kicking the can down the road”, insisting it could help.

And, on the idea of a circuit-breaker – a short lockdown, backed by Keir Starmer – the infectious disease expert at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine – said: “A week isn't long enough.

“Somebody who's infected the day before you go into that break would still be infectious when you came out.

“You need at least one generation of infection, so people who were infected before, to stop being infected by the end, so it would need to be at least two weeks.”

The criticism came after Northern leaders plunged Boris Johnson's strategy for reversing the coronavirus surge into crisis, by blocking the toughest tier 3 restrictions.

In a powerful attack, Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, insisted they would not accept the “flawed and unfair” move – arguing the deputy chief medical officer had admitted it would not work alone.

Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, warned London could impose the near-lockdown “as a last resort”, but ministers are desperate to avoid doing so without agreement.

He admitted there was “a risk” the tiers strategy might not work and sparked a fresh row with Mr Burnham by accusing him of trying to “hold the government over a barrel”.

“Ultimately we need to take action. We can't have a situation, as we have seen in Manchester, where Andy Burnham is effectively trying to hold the government over a barrel over money and politics when actually we need to take action.

“The cases there are 470 per 100,000 so it is very serious,” he told BBC Breakfast – urging the mayor to “do the right thing by the people of Manchester”. 

Mr Burnham hit back on Twitter, posting: “It's not about what we want for ourselves, @DominicRaab. It's about what we want for low-paid and self-employed people everywhere: fairness.”

Manchester’s leaders are pushing for much bigger financial help for businesses and residents, if tier 3 restrictions are to come in.

Lancashire is expected to move into tier 3 as early as today, although discussions were continuing with council leaders, and possibly parts of the North East.