Confusion undermining efforts to control coronavirus, government adviser warns

Ministers accused of abandoning ‘data not dates’ principle in run-up to 21 June

A government adviser has warned that confusion over its approach is undermining efforts to control coronavirus.

Professor Stephen Reicher, a psychologist on the Sage subcommittee on behavioural science, also accused ministers of appearing to have abandoned their "data not dates" principle.

Plans to ease lockdown restrictions further on 21 June remain in the balance as experts nervously monitor a new variant of the disease first identified in India.

The latest daily figures show there were a further 3,398 lab-confirmed cases in the UK, while officials said another seven people have died, bringing the UK total to 127,775.

Prof Reicher told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the data “suggests we have a problem. We don't know how big the problem is - it might be bad, it might be very bad, we will learn in the next week or two”.

But, he said, the government’s advice was affecting attempts to get the virus under control. "They [ministers] are saying to us, for instance on travel: 'you can travel internationally, but please don't'.

"They say of social contact 'you can hug, but please don't hug'. They say of restrictions, 'no restrictions but please don't go in and out of the hotspots'.

"That contradiction, that sense of confusion, I think is undermining the response," he said.

Other experts have warned ministers to be cautious about lifting lockdown restrictions further.

Professor Anthony Harnden, deputy chair of the official Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), told BBC Breakfast: "I think we need to look at that data very carefully before we completely un-lockdown."

The public will need to “carry on being cautious” even after all legal limitations on social contact are lifted, he said, adding “I think it will be a gradual process even if the 21 June date goes ahead."

He also confirmed that his committee will offer ministers a "range of options" on the potential vaccination of children and that the recently approved single-shot Johnson & Johnson jab could be used in a "booster” campaign later this year.

Sir Tim Gowers, from the University of Cambridge, told The Guardian that Boris Johnson’s repeated assertion that every step on the roadmap back to normality was irreversible had left the prime minister reluctant to U-turn.

"So I think if that's the way you're going to play things, then you should be very, very cautious about every step you take ... And maybe everything [will] be OK, maybe the number of people who are vaccinated will be just enough ... 'R' will broadly speaking stay below one even with Indian variant.

"But if it's not OK, we know, because of mathematics, that things will get bad very, very quickly. Or at least, maybe it won't look that quick to start with, but it'll grow exponentially. So it'll pick up speed and become a big problem."

On Thursday, the prime minister said he "didn't see anything currently in the data" to derail the June reopening, but added: "But we may need to wait."

All legal limits on social contact are due to be lifted in England on 21 June.

Face coverings and work from home guidance may remain in place after that date, however, in an attempt to limit the spread of the virus while more people receive vaccinations, The Times has reported.

On Friday the Department of Health and Social Care announced that surge testing was being deployed in Lancashire, after more cases of the Indian variant were detected.

Around half of all new cases are thought to be the Indian strain. But Public Health England data shows the majority of those who have been infected have not been vaccinated.

Its figures also showed that just 3 per cent of cases (177 out of 5,599) since the start of February had received both doses of a vaccine.

Mr Johnson can expect a howl of protest from the hospitality industry if he does delay beyond 21 June.

Jonathan Neame, the chief executive of the Shepherd Neame brewery and pub company, told Today: "If it's delayed for, say, seven days but there's still a certain outcome the restrictions will be lifted in full after that, then that will be a marginal impact.

"If, on the other hand, we're going into a cycle of a further five weeks of data review and uncertainty and more reviews at that time, then I think that will put a real dampener on the recovery which is happening quite fast at this moment in time, and will really undermine consumer and business confidence.”

Meanwhile, the former Conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith suggested Mr Johnson ‘s chief aide should have ensured the prime minister concentrated on fighting the pandemic in the early part of last year.

Asked on BBC Radio 4's Week In Westminster about claims Mr Johnson was not focusing on the issue, Sir Iain said: "Well, maybe, but what is the role of Dominic Cummings as his main political adviser?”