Budget 2024 latest: Reeves facing £16.6m peak in UK borrowing due to public sector pay rises
Speculation is mounting ahead of 30 October
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Rachel Reeves will announce Labour’s first Budget since coming into power on 30 October, leading one of the most anticipated fiscal events in over two decades.
Ahead of her announcement, government borrowing rose to £16.6 billion last month marking the third highest September borrowing since records began, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This has brought borrowing in the year to date to £79.6 billion – £6.7 billion more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility. The ONS says public sector pay rises contributed to the unexpected rise.
The public finance figures won’t be welcomed by the chancellor, but official sources have said they demonstrate the need for fiscal prudence at the upcoming Budget.
Treasury Chief Secretary Darren Jones said the state of the public finances meant there would be “difficult decisions” to be made.
The ONS figures also show that spending on benefits is down to a two-year low, decreasing by £2 billion to £25.7 billion. The department says a large part of this is due to the cutback of winter fuel payments and removal of cost of living payments.
Reports indicate that the government still intends to reduce welfare spending by £3 billion a year.
We’ll be bringing you all the latest updates ahead of the big event on 30 October here, on The Independent’s liveblog.
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Will there be an inheritance tax increase?
Inheritance tax is a levy on the estate of someone who has died. This is their property, money and possessions. Crucially, it is not paid if the value of these things is below £325,000.
The tax rate is 40 per cent, but it’s only charged on the part of the estate that’s above the threshold. In 2023/24, only 5 per cent of deaths generated an inheritance tax bill, raising around £7 billion.
However, the IFS writes that the tax measure “is littered with special exemptions”. These include a business relief, the ability to pass on agricultural land tax-free, and the tax-free passing on of pension pots.
The economic think tank says that ending these measures alone would raise £4.8bn a year by 2029.
Could the government tax pension savings?
Pension tax relief is a reduction of the amount of tax paid on private pensions. It helps workers save for retirement by boosting their pension pots.
The amount of tax relief a person is granted is based on their income tax. It will effectively cancel out tax on pension contributions up to a maximum of £60,000.
After this, contributions will be taxed at either 20, 40, or 45 per cent, depending on which income tax rate the worker falls into.
However, the chancellor is thought to be considering a flat 30 per cent pension tax relief rate. This would mean that higher earners would effectively pay 10 per cent in tax, while those on the additional rate would pay 15.
The measure would raise around £3 billion a year, with 7 million earners paying more tax. But it would be better news for basic rate earners, who would actually begin to receive a 10 per cent boost to their pension contributions.
Evaluating the idea last year, the IFS said it would “redistribute the burden of taxation from the bottom 80 per cent to the top 20 per cent of earners.”
Calls for budget to fund Iron Dome-style missile defence system in UK
The UK needs its own version of Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system to protect it from Russian aggression, former ministers have said.
Former defence secretary Penny Mordaunt told The I: “This is a significant UK capability gap we must plug at the earliest opportunity. The forthcoming Budget must enable early work to be done on the alliance’s key needs and let the US and other partners know we mean business.”
Budget 2024 preview: Capital Gains reform
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is paid on the profit made when an asset which has increased in value is sold. It is applied to things like the sale of personal possessions worth more than £6,000 (apart from a car), property that’s not the seller’s main home, shares and business assets.
It is charged at 10 or 18 percent for basic rate taxpayers, and 20 or 24 for higher or additional rate earners. There is a tax-free allowance of £3,000.
There are several ways CGT could be changed. In the run-up to the election, the Lib Dems and Greens both said they would rethink the tax bands to be more similar to income tax, raising an estimated £5.2bn a year.
Fact check: Would raising employer national insurance be a ‘tax on working people’?
Speculation has mounted in the subsequent months, with an increase in employer NICs now looking likely. The measure has caused strong political debate, focused on whether it would break Labour’s manifesto pledge to not raise taxes on “working people.”
Ministers and Treasury officials have indicated the government’s position is that the measure would not break their manifesto pledge. Labour has not confirmed that an employer NIC hike will be included in the Budget, but has refused to rule the measure out.
Meanwhile, Institute for Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson has argued it would be a “straightforward breach.”
The tax expert adds that in the extreme case that an increase of one pence per pound in employer NICs was passed on to employees in the form of lower wages, the measure would only net £4.5 billion a year. He adds that the end figure would probably be a little higher than this, but much less than a previous HMRC estimate of £8.5 billion.
Martin Lewis sends warning over Buy Now Pay Later crackdown
Martin Lewis has issued a warning over a new crackdown on buy now, pay later products.
The money expert has cautioned consumers it is a case of buy now, get protected later.
Ministers have announced that millions of shoppers are to be protected by new rules for BNPL, as they are known.
Mr Lewis welcomed the change saying: "Buy Now, Pay Later is now ubiquitous at online checkouts, so the fact it’s never been regulated is a travesty I and others have long campaigned on.
“The last chancellor promised to regulate, then the tumbleweed rolled as he went silent, so I am delighted the new government has quickly restarted the process.”
Millionaires urge Reeves to raise £14bn from capital gains tax changes at Budget
Rachel Reeves should increase capital gains tax (CGT) at Labour’s upcoming Budget, a group of millionaire business owners have urged, estimating the measure would raise £14bn a year.
In a report by the IPPR think-tank, analysts have consulted with wealthy entrepreneurs who say higher CGT would not have stopped them from making investments in the UK.
The group has called for CGT to be aligned with income tax, arguing that fears such a move would lead wealthy individuals to leave the country in response are unfounded. Recent HMRC analysis found that a 10 per cent increase to the measure would actually cost the exchequer £2bn after behavioural impacts.
Budget 2024: Inheritance tax set to rise – here’s what it means for you
Inheritance tax set to rise – here’s what it means for you
Only around 4 per cent of families have to pay ‘death tax’ under current legislation
ICMYI: Streeting refuses to rule out income tax threshold freeze
Wes Streeting has refused to rule out that the Government will freeze income tax thresholds in the upcoming Budget.
Mr Streeting had previously voted against the measure in opposition while Rishi Sunak was prime minister.
Speaking on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips on Sky News, Mr Streeting said: “I’m not going to speculate on what the Chancellor might do in the Budget.
“If you’re asking me whether I would vote against anything in the Chancellor’s Budget? The answer is no, of course I’m not going to do that.”
He went on to say: “This country is paying a heavy price for Conservative failure, and we’re going to have to make some big and difficult choices in this Budget to make sure we fix the foundations of the economy and we don’t end up back here.”
He later added: “What we’re not going to do is duck the difficult decisions, have Government by gimmick, short-term sticking plasters, because that is exactly how we ended up in this situation.”
When is the 2024 Budget and what might be in it?
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver Labour’s first Budget on Wednesday 30 October.
Each year, the chancellor of the exchequer - who is in charge of the government’s finances - makes a Budget statement to MPs.
The speech outlines the government’s plans for spending and taxes.
The Budget speech usually starts around 12:30pm and lasts about an hour. The Independent will be bringing you all the latest updates on the big day.
Ms Reeves may be considering pushing the freeze beyond its current expiry date of 2028 in a move that could raise £7 billion, according to the Financial Times.
Other measures reported to be under consideration include increasing employers’ national insurance contributions, raising fuel duty for the first time since 2010, changes to rules on inheritance tax and stamp duty, and a levy on e-cigarettes, according to reports across the media.
The Treasury has so far declined to comment on Budget speculation.
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