Budget 2024 latest: Huge boost for Reeves as IMF growth forecast rises after inflation battle ‘largely won’
Chancellor responds to fresh prediction for the economy ahead of 30 October statement
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Rachel Reeves will announce Labour’s first Budget since coming into power on 30 October, leading one of the most anticipated fiscal events in over two decades.
Ahead of her announcement, the chancellor has welcomed an upgrade to the UK’s economic forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The financial agency even said the country’s battle against inflation has “largely been won.”
The country’s GDP is now predicted to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2024 – a major uplift from the 0.7 per cent forecast in July.
Ms Reeves said the new forecast was “welcome” but that there is “more work to do.” She added: “The Budget next week will be about fixing the foundations to deliver change, so we can protect working people, fix the NHS and rebuild Britain.”
New figures from the ONS also show that government borrowing rose to £16.6 billion last month marking the third highest September borrowing since records began, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This has brought borrowing in the year to date to £79.6 billion – £6.7 billion more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility. The ONS says public sector pay rises contributed to the unexpected rise.
We’ll be bringing you all the latest updates ahead of the big event on 30 October here, on The Independent’s liveblog.
Streeting hints at Budget of major tax rises after bagging billions for NHS from Reeves
NHS problems will not be fixed ‘in a single Budget’, says Streeting
How to take part in the ‘national conversation’ on the future of the NHS
Inheritance tax to rise in Budget as Reeves plans to hit well-off
UK interest rates will drop to 2.75 per cent, Goldman Sachs predicts
Budget 2024 preview: Capital Gains reform
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is paid on the profit made when an asset which has increased in value is sold. It is applied to things like the sale of personal possessions worth more than £6,000 (apart from a car), property that’s not the seller’s main home, shares and business assets.
It is charged at 10 or 18 percent for basic rate taxpayers, and 20 or 24 for higher or additional rate earners. There is a tax-free allowance of £3,000.
There are several ways CGT could be changed. In the run-up to the election, the Lib Dems and Greens both said they would rethink the tax bands to be more similar to income tax, raising an estimated £5.2bn a year.
Fact check: Would raising employer national insurance be a ‘tax on working people’?
Speculation has mounted in the subsequent months, with an increase in employer NICs now looking likely. The measure has caused strong political debate, focused on whether it would break Labour’s manifesto pledge to not raise taxes on “working people.”
Ministers and Treasury officials have indicated the government’s position is that the measure would not break their manifesto pledge. Labour has not confirmed that an employer NIC hike will be included in the Budget, but has refused to rule the measure out.
Meanwhile, Institute for Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson has argued it would be a “straightforward breach.”
The tax expert adds that in the extreme case that an increase of one pence per pound in employer NICs was passed on to employees in the form of lower wages, the measure would only net £4.5 billion a year. He adds that the end figure would probably be a little higher than this, but much less than a previous HMRC estimate of £8.5 billion.
Martin Lewis sends warning over Buy Now Pay Later crackdown
Martin Lewis has issued a warning over a new crackdown on buy now, pay later products.
The money expert has cautioned consumers it is a case of buy now, get protected later.
Ministers have announced that millions of shoppers are to be protected by new rules for BNPL, as they are known.
Mr Lewis welcomed the change saying: "Buy Now, Pay Later is now ubiquitous at online checkouts, so the fact it’s never been regulated is a travesty I and others have long campaigned on.
“The last chancellor promised to regulate, then the tumbleweed rolled as he went silent, so I am delighted the new government has quickly restarted the process.”
Millionaires urge Reeves to raise £14bn from capital gains tax changes at Budget
Rachel Reeves should increase capital gains tax (CGT) at Labour’s upcoming Budget, a group of millionaire business owners have urged, estimating the measure would raise £14bn a year.
In a report by the IPPR think-tank, analysts have consulted with wealthy entrepreneurs who say higher CGT would not have stopped them from making investments in the UK.
The group has called for CGT to be aligned with income tax, arguing that fears such a move would lead wealthy individuals to leave the country in response are unfounded. Recent HMRC analysis found that a 10 per cent increase to the measure would actually cost the exchequer £2bn after behavioural impacts.
Budget 2024: Inheritance tax set to rise – here’s what it means for you
Inheritance tax set to rise – here’s what it means for you
Only around 4 per cent of families have to pay ‘death tax’ under current legislation
ICMYI: Streeting refuses to rule out income tax threshold freeze
Wes Streeting has refused to rule out that the Government will freeze income tax thresholds in the upcoming Budget.
Mr Streeting had previously voted against the measure in opposition while Rishi Sunak was prime minister.
Speaking on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips on Sky News, Mr Streeting said: “I’m not going to speculate on what the Chancellor might do in the Budget.
“If you’re asking me whether I would vote against anything in the Chancellor’s Budget? The answer is no, of course I’m not going to do that.”
He went on to say: “This country is paying a heavy price for Conservative failure, and we’re going to have to make some big and difficult choices in this Budget to make sure we fix the foundations of the economy and we don’t end up back here.”
He later added: “What we’re not going to do is duck the difficult decisions, have Government by gimmick, short-term sticking plasters, because that is exactly how we ended up in this situation.”
When is the 2024 Budget and what might be in it?
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver Labour’s first Budget on Wednesday 30 October.
Each year, the chancellor of the exchequer - who is in charge of the government’s finances - makes a Budget statement to MPs.
The speech outlines the government’s plans for spending and taxes.
The Budget speech usually starts around 12:30pm and lasts about an hour. The Independent will be bringing you all the latest updates on the big day.
Ms Reeves may be considering pushing the freeze beyond its current expiry date of 2028 in a move that could raise £7 billion, according to the Financial Times.
Other measures reported to be under consideration include increasing employers’ national insurance contributions, raising fuel duty for the first time since 2010, changes to rules on inheritance tax and stamp duty, and a levy on e-cigarettes, according to reports across the media.
The Treasury has so far declined to comment on Budget speculation.
Comment: Labour were right to break their promise on taxes – we should all be paying more
Labour were right to break their promise on taxes – we should all be paying more
... and the Conservatives are the last people who can complain, writes John Rentoul
Reeves considers raising tax on vaping in Budget
Rachel Reeves is considering raising the tax on vaping products in the upcoming Budget as figures lay bare how many children access them in the UK, The Guardian reports.
The tax on vaping products was originally announced by the Conservatives in March, to come in to force in 2026. It is now understood that Ms Reeves could look to increase this.
Under current plans, the new rates from April 2026 will range from £1-3 per 10ml of liquid, depending on nicotine level.
Rachel Reeves planning £3bn welfare cuts in Budget
Rachel Reeves will seek to make around £3 billion of cuts to welfare over the next four years by restricting access to sickness benefits, it is understood.
The Chancellor is expected to commit to the previous Tory government’s plans to save the sum by reforming work capability rules, as first reported by The Telegraph.
Under Conservative proposals, welfare eligibility would have been tightened so that around 400,000 more people who are signed off long-term would be assessed as needing to prepare for employment by 2028/29, reducing the benefits bill by an estimated £3 billion.
It is understood that Ms Reeves will commit to the plan to save £3 billion over four years, but Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall will decide how the system will be changed in order to achieve this.
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