Brexit crisis: As 29 March approaches, what happens now?

EU leaders say they are ready to give Theresa May a short extension

In the ocean of doubt that is Brexit, there is perhaps a little buoy of certainty about what will happen in the next few days.

We know that the legal position as stated in statute is that the UK will leave the EU on 29 March, regardless of the fact that the House of Commons has expressed a desire not to do that.

However, on Thursday EU leaders were saying that with no deal yet in place, they are ready to give Theresa May a short extension of the Article 50 negotiating period to delay the UK’s departure.

They are proposing delaying Brexit to 22 May, but only if the prime minister can convince MPs to approve the Brexit deal they painstakingly negotiated with the UK.

So given that is the case, we can expect her to try to bring her deal for a third vote in the Commons next week – most likely on Monday or Tuesday.

If that passes, then the path is clear: Brexit is delayed until late May allowing time for necessary legislation to be approved by the Commons – smoothly hopefully – and then the UK leaves in an orderly fashion.

But wait, this is where things already become hazy. Commons speaker John Bercow has said he will block any attempt to bring Ms May’s deal back for a third vote if the proposition on offer is not substantially different from previous attempts. Whether it is or not is his call, and he has tended to act in whatever way most annoys the government. Even if it can convince Mr Bercow to allow the vote, it still needs to win it.

Before Ms May’s statement on Wednesday night, the numbers were already looking bone-achingly tight. But there was at least a feeling that people were moving in the right direction.

But then the prime minister told the whole country, and all the voters in it, that their MPs were to blame for constantly blocking Brexit. Predictably there has been a huge backlash with some MPs who said they might back the deal, now saying they will not.

Now the feeling, which admittedly changes every few hours in Westminster, is that Ms May’s deal is looking less and less likely to pass.

Neither Ms May nor the EU has spelt out exactly what happens in this instance, but there are basically two options: a long delay to Brexit, possibly even a revocation of Article 50, or a no-deal Brexit.

For the EU’s part, French president Emmanuel Macron has said if the deal is rejected for a third time in the Commons then the UK should simply be pushed to a no-deal Brexit. While he has been applauded by some Brexiteers in the UK, many suspect this is a bluff to try to get MPs to vote for the deal next week.

European Council president Donald Tusk has indicated that if the deal is beaten again, there may be an emergency summit towards the end of next week to decide what happens next.

The chances are that the EU would offer the UK a long extension of the Article 50 period, possibly up to nine months, but there would be onerous and humiliating conditions attached.

The UK would have to take part in EU elections, there would be pressure for a new referendum and a new EU negotiating stance, that in all likelihood would involve the bloc dictating that the UK must have a closer relationship in the future, possibly staying in a customs union.

The problem is that Ms May gave a clear statement earlier this week that she is not a prime minister who will consider a lengthy delay to Brexit.

This could mean that if the only choices left are a long delay or no deal, that she will quit and allow her successor to take the country into the extended Article 50 period.

It could also mean that she opts for a no-deal Brexit. There is, however, one other complicating factor. Once again it’s those pesky MPs.

On Monday there will probably be another opportunity for them, one way or another, to try to seize control of parliament’s schedule with an eye on preventing a no-deal scenario from ever taking place and most likely guiding the UK into a softer Brexit relationship, or towards a new referendum, or even perhaps to a revocation of Article 50 altogether.

With Brexit at the moment, it is best to take it one key event at a time. So if you begin to feel a bit seasick, just focus on the next crucial step – will Mr Bercow allow Ms May to hold her third vote?