Brexit causes surge in support for united Ireland, poll finds

Border poll result would now be wide open

Brexit has caused a huge surge in support for a united Ireland among the population of Northern Ireland, according to new research.

A poll by YouGov commissioned by the BBC found that a referendum or “border poll” on whether to leave the UK would now be a close-run result, with undecided voters having the casting vote.

Over a quarter of people in the six counties say they have changed their mind since the Brexit vote and now support a united Ireland – bringing polling for a referendum to 45 per cent staying in the UK and 42 per cent leaving it, with 13 per cent undecided.

Brexit has made 28 per cent say they are more likely to support a united Ireland, 27 per cent say they were already likely to support a united Ireland before Brexit, and 40.6 per cent say they still support union with the UK. Just 0.85 per cent of the public say Brexit has made them less likely to support a united Ireland.

Support for the cause is more popular among the younger generation than the old, with 49.4 per cent of under-45s backing a break with the UK compared to 37.7 per cent who want to stay in it.

Though Catholics are significantly more likely to support joining the Republic than Protestants, a minority of the latter, 8.5 per cent, say they support leaving the UK. An overall majority (50.2 per cent) in Northern Ireland’s capital, Belfast, support a united Ireland.

Northern Ireland has become the focus of Brexit talks because it is set to become the only future land border between the EU and UK. But under the Good Friday Agreement which brought an end to the Troubles, there cannot be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Though the Government and EU both say they are committed to avoiding a hard border, leaked tapes released on Thursday showed Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, saying it was “just beyond belief” that the issue was being taken so seriously and that focusing on such a “small” item amounted to “allowing the tail to wag the dog”.

The YouGov poll also found that 81.3 per cent of the Northern Ireland population do not believe that politicians reflect concerns of the people in the six counties well, while just 17.1 per cent did.

Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, said on Friday morning that a border poll would be “divisive” and “a bad idea”.

The taoiseach, who is visiting Northern Ireland on Friday, told the Good Morning Ulster programme: “We should be respecting the primacy of the Good Friday Agreement and, at the heart of the Good Friday Agreement, is power sharing within Northern Ireland, ever-increasing cooperation within the north and south and peace in Britain and Ireland.

“While the Good Friday Agreement provides for the possibility of a border poll, and would allow that to pass by a majority of one, I don’t think the time or the conditions are right.

“I think the focus should be on getting the institutions up and running again, rather than focusing on a border poll.”

His comments came after former first minister Peter Robinson argued that any future border poll could not be conducted on the basis of a simple majority.