Brexit talks enter final week with time running out to avoid no deal

EU says UK has refused to meet compromise attempts, as time runs out

British trade negotiators have arrived in Brussels for a crunch round of talks, with EU leaders warning of the need to make “big progress” to avert a possible no-deal later this week. 

As he travelled to the EU capital, chief negotiator David Frost warned that an agreement might not be possible, with an informal mid-November deadline looming closer than ever.

Ireland’s foreign minister described prospects of a deal as “very difficult” but “doable”, while UK cabinet ministers said this was “a week when things need to move” to justify more time at the negotiating table.

Despite optimism at the start of November when both sides intensified talks, both sides say daily meetings have produced little progress on the fundamental blockages that have dogged an agreement since the start of the year.

“Both sides recognise that time is very, very short. It’s not long ago we were saying we needed to get some kind of conclusion by the middle of October,” cabinet minister George Eustice said on Sunday.

“People have persevered with these talks. There does come a point frankly where businesses need to know what they are preparing for.

“You can always squeeze out extra time if you need to, if you’re nearly there. But ... this needs to be a week when things move, when we break through some of these difficult issues and get resolution.”

The UK and the EU have both stated that a deal would need to be signed and sealed by the middle of November to give time for ratification before the new year, when the transition period will end and Britain will be dumped out of the single market and customs union.

Diplomats have speculated that the real deadline is a virtual EU leaders’ summit scheduled for Thursday this week, when the bloc’s 27 presidents and prime ministers are set to hold a video conference focusing on Covid.

Officials say Brexit could yet make it onto the agenda for the meeting, which would have the authority to pull the plug on further talks if they are judged to be pointless.

“We are working to get a deal, but the only one that’s possible is one that is compatible with our sovereignty and takes back control of our laws, our trade and our waters. That has been our consistent position from the start and I will not be changing it,” said Lord Frost, the UK negotiator, ahead of the latest round.

He said negotiators “now largely have common draft treaty texts” but said “significant elements are of course not yet agreed”.

Lord Frost added: “We may not succeed. Either way, as the prime minister Boris Johnson made clear on 16 October, people and businesses must prepare for the change that is coming on 31 December, most of which happens whether there is a deal or not."

Officials on both sides did not seem optimistic ahead of the last round of discussions. One increasingly frustrated EU official told The Independent: “The latest thinking is that we have been in compromise mode for ages now, trying to find solutions, but the UK is not putting in the effort on their side and not reciprocating.”

Hopes expressed by some MEPs in Brussels that the departure of Dominic Cummings from Downing Street could lead to a change in the UK position appear to have been ill-founded. Cabinet minister Mr Eustice told the BBC: “I don’t actually think the departure of Dominic Cummings makes any impact on the negotiations, since Lord Frost has been leading those.”

For now at least, the British government appears to be in no mood to compromise and continues to actively threaten a no-deal Brexit if the EU side does not shift.

“Any agreement needs to be in place before the end of the transition period, and if an agreement can’t be reached, we will leave on Australia-style terms,” a UK official said, repeating a well-worn British line designed to extract concessions from the EU – so far with little success.

Yet sources close to the UK’s negotiating team insist that they are being constructive within the fundamental principles that they have laid out, and that it is the EU unwilling to close the negotiating gap.

British negotiators point the finger at Brussels’ refusal to discuss legal texts until recent weeks, which they say has held up progress. They also accuse their EU counterparts of refusing to budge on the fundamental principles of a level playing field.

Yet the commission has also been clear that its own fundamental principles cannot budge on issues like regulations, governance, and fisheries.

Officials on both sides say a deal is still fundamentally possible; but place the emphasis on the other team of negotiators to get there.

The fundamental sticking points remain fixed: the extent to which the UK will have to abide by EU rules, notably on state aid; the governance of a deal to prevent backsliding; and the extent to which EU fishing fleets will have access to British waters.

A further complication is the question of the Irish border, which was solved by last year’s withdrawal agreement until the UK tried to overwrite it with domestic law.

Speaking on Sunday Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney warned that there was “no way” the bloc would ratify a new free trade agreement while the UK was breaking a previous deal signed less than a year ago.

“We have got to make big progress this week,” Mr Coveney told Sky News yesterday.

The two sides are negotiating a free trade agreement to sit alongside the withdrawal agreement put together last year ahead of the general election. Because Britain is leaving the single market and customs union, UK businesses will face new border checks and controls whether or not an agreement is signed. But the absence of an agreement will mean firms also face high tariffs and quotas.

The National Audit Office warned last week that the government had not done enough to prepare for 31 December and that there would be disruption at the border on 1 January no matter what.