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Brexit: Second referendum campaigners to target 100 seats at next election in bid for Commons majority

People’s Vote campaign to mobilise activists and funds to help oust Tory Brexiteers and support pro-Final Say MPs

Benjamin Kentish
Political Correspondent
Sunday 04 August 2019 12:11 BST
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How would a second Brexit referendum work?

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Campaigners for a second referendum will try to oust dozens of Brexiteer MPs if an early general election is called later this year, a leaked document has revealed.

The People's Vote campaign will use its significant resources and network of activists to target 100 seats in an attempt to secure a majority in the House of Commons for a Final Say vote.

It will urge Remain supporters to vote tactically to try to elect the greatest number of MPs who back another referendum, in the hope that Brexit can still be stopped.

An internal memo, seen by The Independent, reveals discussions between senior figures about seats where campaigners hope to oust pro-Brexit Tory MPs and others where they will help defend the majorities of MPs who back another referendum.

The document was drawn up by People's Vote director James McGrory last week, amid growing speculation that Boris Johnson could call a general election if he is unable to deliver Brexit by 31 October.

Mr Johnson and his team have repeatedly denied this, but a series of major funding announcements during his first days in office have fuelled speculation that the Conservatives are gearing up for an election.

An election could also be triggered if MPs bring down Mr Johnson’s government through a vote of no confidence, in an attempt to stop him forcing through a no-deal Brexit.

Mr McGrory wrote: "In a general election our objective has to be a simple one: to secure a parliamentary majority for a People’s Vote that gives the public the option of staying in the EU. "

He predicted that, at the next election, "tactical voting will be a bigger factor than in any previous election fought in the UK" and said Brexit was “loosening political allegiances of many voters".

The decision by several of the smaller pro-referendum parties to stand aside in last week's Brecon and Radnorshire by-election in order to give the Liberal Democrats the best chance of winning the seat was a model for other constituencies, he said, “where similar co-operation could help secure the election of an MP opposed to Boris Johnson’s Brexit and firmly committed to a People’s Vote”.

However, the refusal of Labour and the SNP to take part in such an electoral pact means the potential for a "Remain alliance" is likely to be limited.

Mr McGrory continued: "Our campaign has always been more about people than political parties. As such, we have the capacity to organise our activists and galvanise support in a general election focused on one issue above all others and where, we believe, tactical voting will be a bigger factor than in any previous election fought in the UK.

"It is crucial we concentrate our resources, campaigning activity and spending in the seats that matter the most.

"In some cases we will be asking Labour supporters to vote for other parties such as the Liberal Democrats. In many others, we will be asking supporters of the Liberal Democrats, the Greens or others to vote Labour. This is based on nothing more than the hard-headed acknowledgement of which party is best-placed to beat an opponent of the People’s Vote."

Jeremy Corbyn is off the fence on Brexit and backing a second referendum

In a warning to Jeremy Corbyn, he added: “In marginal seats where the Labour candidate does not support a People's Vote on any Brexit outcome, we will not give them our backing.”

A proposal for a referendum on any Brexit deal approved by parliament was only 12 votes short of winning a majority when MPs held "indicative votes" on a range of Brexit outcomes earlier this year. Campaigners hope that an election could deliver a majority in favour of a Final Say vote.

The People's Vote campaign is planning to ask MPs to set out their position on another referendum, with those who refuse to express support likely to be targetted if their seat is winnable.

Mr McGrory suggested that constituencies the campaign will target include Chipping Barnet, where Theresa Villiers, the pro-Brexit environment secretary, has a majority of just 353; Richmond Park, where Zac Goldsmith is defending a majority of 45; and Chingford and Woodford Green, where Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader and a senior Eurosceptic, has a majority of 2,438.

People's Vote is also planning to mobilise activists in support of MPs who back a second referendum but hold their seats by a small margin. These include the Liberal Democrats' Layla Moran in Oxford West and Abingdon, Labour's Rosie Duffield in Canterbury and Plaid Cymru's Liz Saville Roberts in Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

The campaign currently has a list of 133 constituencies where it believes it could impact the election result, but will reduce this to just over 100 in the coming weeks.

lt will then begin drawing up a plan for the "PV100" campaign. This will include monitoring local issues in the target seats, mobilising activists and producing a digital campaign aimed at voters in key seats.

Around half of the seats are expected to be constituencies where People’s Vote hopes to oust an MP opposed to another referendum, and the other half areas where the campaign is helping an incumbent MP who wants a Final Say vote.

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