Brexit: From Dover lorry queues to will the UK rejoin the EU? 7 key questions answered

Two years on from ‘Brexit Day’, Adam Forrest answers your questions on lorry queues, Article 16 and the DUP

Container lorries queue at the Port of Dover (AFP via Getty Images)

Two years since Britain left the EU, Brexit is still very much at the top of the news agenda with lorry queues lengthening at Dover as exporting firms struggle with red tape.

On Monday, fears were raised that a ‘bonfire’ of EU laws on everything from data privacy to road standards could be forced through behind parliament’s back under new plans to seize “Brexit freedoms”. This followed a report over the weekend that British shoppers are facing less choice and higher prices as food suppliers give up on the UK.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson’s government has claimed that Brexit has already proved a “big success”.

To mark two years since ‘Brexit Day’, The Independent’s journalist Adam Forrest was on hand to answer reader questions on all things Brexit from lorry queues to trade deals and the protocol. If you want to sign up to Forrest’s Brexit and Beyond newsletter, bringing the latest updates on Brexit to your inbox, click in the box at the top of this article after filling out your email address or you can click here.

How is the government can claim the queues at Dover have nothing to do with Brexit?

The government has said it is “untrue” to blame Brexit – claiming queues are due to ferry re-fits. But drivers, customs agents, freight forwarders, union officials and even the Dover port’s own chief exec have all pointed to customs checks as the reason for delays. Each haulier is taking 10 to 20 minutes to clear checks. The additional time for checks was down to the codes needed for government’s new Goods Vehicle Movement Service (GVMS) system and other export paperwork. Though this has been the case since last January, companies had 60 days to fill in customs forms after exporting last year. But since 1 January, the forms have to completed in full – adding to lengthier checks.

Isn’t the problem new requirements on UK businesses having to import from the EU?

Even longer delays have been experienced on the French side at Calais because of the extra red tape needed for imports from the EU into the UK since 1 January. Lorry drivers have reported queueing for up to eight hours to get through controls, partly because UK firms have struggled with complex new customs declarations and rules-of-origin forms. And if there is a problem with paperwork, then the trucks have been pulled aside – some trucks have been in lorry parks for several days until problems can be sorted out.

Please could you comment on why this story is not being picked up by mainstream media apart from yourselves?

To be fair, lots of media outlets have started picking up on the queues, and the potential that serious delays could cause problems. The worrying thing is that it could get worse and disrupt supply chains. There’s a good possibility firms will make fewer mistakes and get in the swing of things. But … checks just take time. And the overall volume of imports / exports and car traffic will start picking from next month. There are stricter checks coming in July akin to those already taking place on food being shipped from the UK to the EU. And then there are extra biometric checks coming into force in late September, as the EU’s new Entry/Exit System (EES) comes in.

Will Liz Truss and the government trigger Article 16?

It’s possible, but unlikely … Liz Truss has said there is a “deal to be done” and suggested February would be the time to do it – before political campaigning starts for May elections in Northern Ireland. She has a strong incentive to do some kind of deal – even a limited one to ease some food safety checks (so-called sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) controls). With a cost of living and Ukraine invasion crises on the horizon, there seems little interest in a trade war with the EU.

What happens if the DUP decides to stop all the Brexit checks themselves?

DUP first minister Paul Givan said last week his DUP colleague agriculture minister Edwin Poots would order a stop to the checks in NI soon. They appear to think they have the authority if the deal does not have consent at the NI executive. Liz Truss said last week it was a “matter for the executive”. The pressure is on Truss to achieve a deal in February, or the DUP could take the matter out of her hands. Even if there a limited deal which doesn’t remove all checks, the DUP still has the potential to cause a lot of trouble.

Could you see a situation where the UK re-joins the EU in the next decade?

It’s hard to imagine real clamour of another referendum anytime soon. The anti-Brexit campaigner Michael Heseltine suggested recently it could be looked at soon if key Leave campaigner Boris Johnson is kicked out of No 10. It’s wishful thinking, let’s be honest. But things do change, subtly, over time. It’s not impossible to imagine a campaign building in future decades. Remainer Tory MP Tom Tugendhat – declaring himself a contender in the event of leadership contest – let slip over the weekend that there was “no way we’re going back into the EU for a generation, whatever that is, 30, 40 years”.

What is the price an average family pays for 'the freedom of' Brexit’?

Brexit will mean a four per cent long-term decline to UK’s GDP, according to an estimate by the government’s Office for Budget Responsibility at the time of the last Budget. About £80bn a year, which is a lot of money. And the short-term impact is already clear. The UK’s trade in goods is 15.7 per cent, around £12.6bn – lower than it would have been we’d stayed in the single market and customs union (according to CER analysis of government data). So it’s bad already, with no credible estimate suggesting it won’t stay bad for years to come.

These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by Adam Forrest at 3pm on Monday 31 January. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.

Do you have any topics you’d like to see an expert host an ‘Ask Me Anything’ on? Let us know your suggestions in the comments below.