Brexit: Chances of UK leaving EU with a deal only '50:50', says Latvian foreign minister

Edgars Rinkevics warns of 'very considerable risk' of Britain crashing out of EU without an agreement as he prepares for talks with Jeremy Hunt

The chances of the UK securing a Brexit deal before it leaves the European Union in March are only 50:50, Latvia’s foreign minister has said ahead of talks with Jeremy Hunt.

Edgars Rinkevics said there was a “very considerable risk” that, with time rapidly running out, Britain could crash out of the bloc without a withdrawal agreement.

He will meet Mr Hunt, the foreign secretary, in the Latvian capital Riga today, with Brexit high on the agenda.

Mr Hunt’s visit is part of a three day trip that will also take in Denmark and the Netherlands. The talks form part of a concerted effort by UK ministers to convince their European counterparts to support Theresa May’s Chequers plan, which has already been dismissed by the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.

The Independent‘s petition to give the public a Final Say on Britain’s future relationship with the EU has now been signed by more than 600,000 people.

Asked about the prospects of a Brexit deal, Mr Rinkevics told BBC Today: “We are at a very critical point.

“I believe that both the EU and UK need to have extra effort to reach some kind of deal by October because I believe it is in the best interests of both the EU and UK.”

He added: “I think it is only now the British public and British government understand how complex, how difficult this kind of Brexit is, and that it is very difficult to build the future relationship.”

Assessing the likelihood of an agreement being reached, he said: “Frankly, at this point I would rate it 50:50 – 50:50 is a very considerable risk.”

He also suggested British attempts to win European leaders’ support for the Chequers proposals, despite opposition from the European Commission, would not work.

He said: “From our point of view the EU is united as 27 [countries]. We are also satisfied to see that there is a more detailed position of the British government that constitutes good ground for really trying hard to reach a deal. So having said 50:50, I would say I am remaining optimistic.”

Mr Rinkevics said he had “full confidence” that Mr Barnier “is doing his best”, and that the EU 27 would not “split our position” and begin bilateral talks with the UK.

Responding to the comments, Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, said he believed the Chequers plan would form the basis of an agreement with the EU.

He said: “None of us want no deal, none of us are working towards that, I think it would be damaging for both this country and the EU.

“We’ve got to redouble our efforts to make sure we reach the right agreement this autumn, and that’s why Theresa May has brought forward the Chequers proposals. They are not easy to sell in this country, as we know they are difficult for Brexiteers to accept.”

He added: “My view, having thought about this very carefully, is that they do offer us a way to reach an agreement with the EU. I didn’t campaign to leave the EU in order to have a different specification of motorcar in France to in the UK – so I can accept having alignment on the technical specifications of manufactured goods, if that is the price we need to pay in order to have a sensible relationship for the future.”

Ms May has also repeatedly insisted a Brexit deal based on the Chequers plan is achievable, but Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, said there is only a 40 per cent chance of an agreement.

Asked about the chances of a no-deal Brexit, he told the Sunday Times last week: “I have never thought it was much more than 50-50, certainly not much more than 60-40.”

He said the EU was concerned about the prospects of Britain crashing out without an agreement, and that this was crucial to securing a good deal for Britain.

He said: “I think it’s essential that no deal looks credible to the EU. If it’s causing some anxiety in Britain – think what it’s causing in Brussels.

“If our message on no deal is becoming more credible and resonating with those we are negotiating with in Europe, then our negotiating hand is getting stronger every day and we shouldn’t do anything to undermine that.”