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General election: How likely is a snap vote and what’s next for Brexit?

Analysis: Here is how to make sense of the turbulent two months ahead in Westminster

Sean O'Grady
Thursday 05 September 2019 13:03 BST
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Boris Johnson loses majority as Philip Lee crosses Commons chamber to join Lib Dems

Boris Johnson has repeatedly said said that he does not want a general election, but he has claimed that if a parliament forces the government to extend the Brexit deadline he will have no choice but to trigger an early poll.

But how likely is a snap election and how will we get there? Here are the answers to those questions.

Why does Boris Johnson want a no-deal Brexit?

There are two reasons why Mr Johnson might want, or appear to want, a no-deal Brexit, and they are not mutually exclusive. The first is that he genuinely believes that the Withdrawal Agreement can only be amended if the EU realises that no-deal Brexit is a serious possibility.

Thus, it acts as a negotiating lever because of the damage it will do to the EU economy broadly, and especially in certain sectors and regions that are heavily exposed to the UK market.

Examples of this would include Ford Focus factory in Saarlouis, Germany, the Heinz HP Sauce works in Holland, tomato growers in Spain, sand the northern French and Belgian ports – and the entire Irish economy in which a high proportion of goods move through Northern Ireland and/or Great Britain. Hence the frantic high-profile preparations and loud hardline rhetoric – to make it sound a credible threat.

The second reason is that Mr Johnson might not get what he wants (a deal) and realising this, and realising that he cannot now retreat easily form his “do or die” promise then a no-deal Brexit has to be managed as smoothly as possible.

For Mr Johnson, a no-deal Brexit offers the UK the prize of being able to create a high-productivity, high-tech, high wage, low tax economy, a global beacon of free trade, with liberalised markets and massive infrastructure investment to make it the best place on earth to do business.

It will also allow the UK to conclude bespoke trade deals with the US, China, India and other faster growing economies, and thus delver longer term prosperity, despite short-term costs.

What happens if Boris Johnson loses to the Tory rebels and can't force through a no-deal Brexit?

Mr Johnson has let it be known he would like to call a general election in such circumstances, with a polling date of 15 October, two days before the next crucial EU Summit.

However, under the 2011 Fixed-term Parliament Act this is no longer in his gift, and he would need Labour consent to do so – which appears unlikely.

Thus in such a scenario Mr Johnson would be legally required to agree an Article 50 extension with the EU and find some other way out of the problem. Mr Johnson says he will not do so. There would be another impasse.

He could continue to govern on every area except Brexit, but on the centrepiece of his government’s mission he would have lost power to the rebels, who carry the confidence of the House of Commons on the Brexit issue.

The UK would in effect have two governments – a Brexit one led by the likes of David Gauke, Philip Hammond and Jeremy Corbyn; and a non-Brexit one led by Mr Johnson, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid and the rest of the Cabinet.

What can Boris Johnson do to delay the law stopping a no-deal Brexit?

In the first place Mr Johnson can use various bits of parliamentary timewasting in the Commons, but this is quite limited.

When the bill passes in the Commons and moves to the Lords his allies in the Lords can much more easily filibuster, as the Lords has a gentler approach to managing its time.

Still, it seems unlikely that, even under the genteel regime operating in the upper house, this will succeed.

After that for a bill to be law it must be agreed by the Queen, and he could delay sending it to her for her signature. He could argue that he wants to time to complete his talks with the EU.

Parody video has demonstrators yelling 'brush your hair' as Boris Johnson gives speech outside Downing Street

Sooner or later though the Palace might put some pressure on him, as would the Speakers of the Commons and Lords, and the courts to gain the Royal Assent. At that point Mr Johnson is theoretically obliged to obey the law.

If he simply refuses to do so and will not speak to the EU, for example, he could be charged and prosecuted and find himself in court. There are though no set penalties for not taking to Jean-Claude Juncker, but a PM who flouts the law would usually have to quit from embarrassment on all sides.

What is a snap election and who would win?

A snap election is one called outside the usual cycle of a five-year parliament. In the past any prime minister could call one almost at any time. Today, under a law passed in 2011, two-thirds of MPs must agree to one for it to happen immediately.

If a prime minister loses the confidence vote he must allow the Commons two weeks to find an alternative government, if it cannot do that then an election must be held.

The timing of that election would be up to the prime minister. Theoretically this might have meant that Brexit on October 31st would take place in the model of a general election campaign, say of Mr Johnson set a polling day of 1 Novem,ber but if the proposed law banning a no-deal Brexit is passed and makes it to the statute book, then this cannot happen under the law.

What happens if Boris Johnson can't get a majority for a snap general election?

He is trapped. He would have to continue to govern or hand over to Mr Corbyn or another leader to become prime minister. Or, if no such figure can command the confidence of the House, there would be an election, but Brexit would not be allowed to go ahead.

How would a snap election result affect Brexit?

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If Mr Johnson won the election and was able to change the laws on Brexit and calling elections he might then be able to take the UK out of the EU on his terms.

What happens if Boris Johnson ‘breaks the law’ and forces through a no-deal?

Like any law, the PM can be taken to court. He might try to rule by decree, and get the Queen to convene meetings of the Privy Council to issue orders-in-council, but this would require the Queen to act in manner unknown since the seventeenth century. The EU could also refuse to recognise an illegal act under domestic and/or international law.

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