Brexit: Food prices to rise 10%, police unable to protect public and worst recession in decade, UK's top civil servant warns in leaked no-deal analysis

Cabinet secretary Sir Mark Sedwill says no deal would make UK 'less safe', see food prices soar and trigger worst recession in a decade

Britain's most senior civil servant has privately warned cabinet ministers of the dire consequences of a no-deal Brexit.

Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, told ministers that leaving the EU without an agreement will result in food prices rising by ten per cent, the police being unable to protect people and the economy suffering the worst recession in a decade.

Direct rule would have to be restored in Northern Ireland for the first time since 2007 and the government would come under pressure to bail out companies that had gone bust, he warned.

In an explosive 14-page briefing sent to every cabinet minister and obtained by the Daily Mail, Sir Mark said leaving without an agreement would make Britain "less safe" and see pressure on law enforcement authorities "enormously increase".

The stark warning comes just ten days before Britain is due to leave the EU with no deal after Theresa May's exit plan was rejected three times and MPs voted down various alternatives.

Parliament is strongly opposed to a no-deal exit, meaning the government is likely to instead seek a further delay to Brexit. However, the EU has demanded a concrete plan from the UK for how the extension will be used before it agrees to a lengthy postponement.

On Monday, MPs rejected all four possible proposals for a way forward: two versions of a softer Brexit, a fresh referendum and revoking Article 50.

The cabinet will meet for four hours on Monday in a bid to thrash out a way forward, but ministers are deeply divided between those wanting Ms May to agree to a softer Brexit and those who want to leave without a deal.

Cabinet ministers had reportedly sought Sir Mark's advice on the risks of no deal in order to ensure they were meeting their duty to govern in the national interest.

In his response, the cabinet secretary, who also acts as Ms May's national security adviser, said: "We believe there would be significant disruption in the short term. Food prices would increase by up to 10 per cent, with steeper rises in fresh product prices."

He said the consequences of no deal would be "more severe" in Northern Ireland than elsewhere, adding: "The current powers granted to the Northern Irish secretary would not be adequate for the pace, breadth or controversy of the decisions needed to be taken through a no-deal exit. Therefore we would have to introduce direct rule."

And raising the prospect of law and order breaking down, Sir Mark said none of government's "mitigation measures would give the UK the same security capabilities as our current ones...the UK would be less safe as a result."

He continued: "Our national security would be disrupted....The stability of the union would be dislocated."

The cabinet secretary said the economy would suffer the worst recession since 2008, with the subsequent fall in the value of the pound likely to be "more harmful" than in 2008 because it would affect only the UK and not other countries.