No-deal Brexit is ‘fraught with risk’ and ‘everybody should be worried’, says former top civil servant

‘Everybody should be worried about what happens in a no-deal situation,’ Philip Rycroft says in interview with BBC Panorama

Everyone should be worried about the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, the former leading Brexit civil servant said.

Speaking on the BBC’s Panorama, former permanent secretary at the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) Philip Rycroft said a no-deal Brexit was “fraught with risk” and a “step into the unknown”.

“I think everybody should be worried about what happens in a no-deal situation. We would be taking a step into the unknown,” he said.

“The rational outcome over the next few months is to get a deal because that is overwhelmingly in the economic interest of both the EU and the UK.”

“It’s not in the UK’s interest to have no deal, it’s not in the EU’s interest to have a no deal,” he said.

Mr Rycroft was in charge of Brexit planning for 18 months before retiring shortly ahead of the original March Brexit deadline.

At the time, his departure sparked claims from critics that the “chaotic” Brexit department was struggling to cope with the demands of leaving the EU. Mr Rycroft once said fears about Brexit “keeps me awake at night”.

Mr Rycroft said there are around “16,000 civil servants whose jobs are dedicated to Brexit-related issues”, in what he calls “an unprecedented situation” and “the biggest exercise across Government we’ve seen over the last few decades”.

“The planning I think is in good shape,” he said. “But of course what that doesn’t mean is that there won’t be an impact from Brexit, and particularly a no-deal Brexit, because that is a very major change and it would be a very abrupt change to our major trading relationship.”

The Panorama episode, titled “No-Deal Brexit: Are We Ready?”, which will air today, explores what crashing out to the EU without a deal could mean for the country.

The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) told the programme of their concern at the impact of a no-deal Brexit on security.

Tim Mairs, PSNI assistant chief constable, said that Brexit could provide a recruitment “opportunity” for the New IRA and other dissident paramilitary groups.

“We know that the New IRA and other groups continue to recruit people and we believe that Brexit provides an opportunity for them to encourage people to recruit,” he said.

He added that, while the PSNI do not see any upsurge in recruitment or violence being driven specifically by Brexit at this stage, tariffs at the Irish border could create “new opportunities” for organised crime groups to exploit.

“We would see, traditionally, connections between some of those groups and more violent groups,” he said.

“The potential impact of a no deal on the economy in Northern Ireland is significant and that would in our view present potentially significant security concerns moving into the future.”

Meanwhile, with the possibility of a no-deal Brexit on the cards, the chief executive of the Road Haulage Association has told the BBC that the transport secretary, Chris Grayling, tried to pressure him to stop speaking out following a private briefing in August 2018.

Richard Burnett said that after his trade association issued a press release, Chris Grayling got in touch with Richard Burnett and left him a voicemail.

“I’ve got to say how very disappointed I am ... I had intended to involve you closely in the planning over the next few months, but issuing a press release straight after meeting like that makes it much more difficult for me to do that,” Mr Grayling said in the voice note.

Mr Burnett said he felt that Mr Grayling was “trying to silence an industry that’s trying to help government guide them”.

“My sense of that message was – either shut up or you don’t engage ... You either play ball with us or you won’t be part of the negotiations on behalf of the industry,” he said.

The Road Haulage Association acknowledges that discussions with government didn’t stop.

The Department for Transport said the Road Haulage Association had been heavily involved in EU preparatory work and they will continue to involve them at every stage of planning.

They added it was “extremely unfortunate when details of private conversations held in confidence are made public in a press release”.

In February, reports suggested that thousands of British lorry drivers face the prospect of being barred from entering the EU after missing out on permits that will be required after Brexit.

Mr Burnett called the communications with the government over preparations a “frustrating process” and that they would have “failed” if his members end up in lorry parks in Kent.

On Sunday, the National Farmers’ Union president Minette Batters warned that a no-deal Brexit would be “absolutely disastrous” for agriculture and could force shepherds to slaughter their flocks.