EU would delay Brexit again to let UK hold a second referendum

EU officials expect leaders to demand a justification from Theresa May for a long Article 50 extension

EU leaders are prepared to let Britain delay Brexit again to allow time for a second referendum, The Independent understands.

After parliament rejected Theresa May’s deal for a third time, the bloc called a summit on 10 April – two days before the UK is on course to leave without a deal.

And senior Brussels officials familiar with leaders’ thinking say that barring a credible plan to get a majority for the withdrawal agreement, the UK would be given more time only if it was for another clear option such as a general election or a referendum.

The EU has already warned that a further extension, which could run until at least the end of the year, would also require the UK to take part in European parliament elections scheduled for the end of May.

As reported by The Independent, the prime minister is considering a general election as a way out of the Brexit chaos in Westminster, where MPs have rejected all options – including a no-deal Brexit. Senior officials in Brussels have made clear that an extension would also be justified if it was to make time for a referendum.

Indicative votes in the Commons this week showed relatively strong support for a confirmatory referendum among MPs, with numbers such that only around a dozen more would need to be convinced to back one to pass it.

One senior EU official said there were “three possible justifications” for a long extension emerging in member states’ thinking following their summit last week.

“One is if there is a general election. All of us speculate about what that changes, but we are a democracy and we respect democratic procedures so it would be,” the senior official said.

“A second referendum: that does not seem very likely but it also a democratic process that we would like to respect.

“And then the less defined one: if there is some sort of plan for a political process that can lead to, if not a political consensus, then at least a workable majority. That, and I should underline it, cannot involve any reopening of the withdrawal agreement.”

The senior official stressed that no final decision had been taken and that it would ultimately be up to leaders in the room on 10 April – who last week tore up their original plan and wrote a new one at the last minute.

But with Westminster in full deadlock, inter-party talks so far yielding nothing, and the Brexit deal already rejected three times, the prospect of any credible political process to build a majority now looks distant.

Labour is insisting on a customs union if it is to back the deal, but if such a move were accepted by Theresa May her own MPs would likely be enraged even further, and refuse to support the deal.

EU leaders have already insisted that the UK would have to take part in European parliament elections if a delay beyond 12 April, the current deadline, is to happen.

Officials have suggested that any further Brexit extension would have to be until at least the end of the year, possibly more – with appetite for repeatedly kicking the can down the road in small steps at zero in European capitals.

There are some worries in Brussels that a long extension could “import” the political crisis in the UK into the EU institutions and “infect” the rest of the European Union.

Rhetoric by some Tory Brexiteers about bringing down the EU from the inside, which has found an airing in some right-wing UK newspapers, has not gone unnoticed in the EU institutions.

“On the one hand, the UK has been behaving in accordance with the obligation of sincere cooperation until now. And at the same time ... we do also read the British press, and we have seen some comments that maybe we should take this opportunity to break the union from the inside,” one official said.

“I don’t think that will be possible and I think any British government will understand that that’s not a promising way forward. We luckily have qualified majority voting on most issues these days and if we don’t, I’m sure we’d find ways of dealing with it if these things were to happen.”

This week former Ukip leader Nigel Farage goaded MEPs in the European parliament, asking whether they wanted him to return at the head of a Eurosceptic delegation. But despite predictions that Eurosceptics would sweep the board if the UK take part in EU elections, Mr Farage’s re-election is not guaranteed, with his new Brexit Party yet to have lift-off in the polls.

Theresa May may be asked by EU leaders to justify a long extension (EPA)

The Liberal Democrats and SNP have already begun picking candidates for the contest, while the new centrist party Change UK, formed by breakaway Tory and Labour MPs, has also expressed an interest in standing candidates.

EU leaders have taken varying stances on a further long Article 50 extension. Mateusz Morawiecki, the Polish prime minister, said on Friday that his country was open to an extension of “six, nine or 12 months”, adding: “We want the UK to stay, and if that would not be possible to have an orderly Brexit.”

Leo Varadkar, the Irish PM, meanwhile said the EU should “be open to a long extension should the United Kingdom decide to fundamentally reconsider its approach to Brexit”.

But a more hardline view is coming from Paris, where Emmanuel Macron has said the EU would “have to decide on the timeframe” for the UK’s exit – suggesting a no deal was still a possibility.

He was joined by Austrian chancellor Sebastian Kurz, who said: ”Unfortunately, if no plan is put forward by Britain in the next two weeks, there will be a hard Brexit. Austria and the EU are prepared for such an outcome.”

The European Commission warned after the vote that no deal was now “likely”.

Ultimately all EU members states have to unanimously agree a way forward. Discussions about the first Article 50 extension were characterised by late-night talks after heads of government ripped up draft plans at the last minute and wrote their own – and the process for a second extension is expected to be just as controversial and unpredictable.