Theresa May wants Britain to ‘turn a corner’ after Brexit – but will it be that simple?

The country is itching to ‘start a new chapter’, the prime minister says – but the hard grind of working out what Brexit means will be only just beginning, says Rob Merrick

Ms May refers to the ‘implementation period’ after withdrawal, a phrase long-since abandoned by everybody else (AP)

Theresa May’s new year message was a plea to MPs to back her beleaguered Brexit deal so the UK can “turn a corner” and focus on the stuff that really matters to people – housebuilding, education, the NHS.

In the prime minister’s vision for 2019, the country is itching to “start a new chapter”, once this pesky business of pulling out of the EU is carried out on 29 March – but how realistic is this?

The answer lies in the description of the period that will follow the formal act of leaving the EU, or rather in the term that should be used to explain what happens next.

Ms May calls it the “implementation period”, a phrase long-since abandoned by everybody else after it became clear there is nothing agreed that can be implemented.

Mostly, it is called the “transition period”, but this also misleading – because, in the absence of any agreement beyond the divorce terms, we have no idea what we might be transitioning to.

No, it should be called the “negotiation phase”, because it is only after departure that the real hard grind of working out what Brexit will mean can begin.

You read that correctly. Everything up until now – the endless disputes, crises and resignations, the huge cost, both in gold and other reforms forgone, are just a prelude for the tougher task ahead.

If the UK leaves the EU this year, it will do so with no blueprint for its future trading terms, after Brussels comprehensively torched the Chequers plan in September.

To give one example of the tortures ahead, the Commons would have to decide, in the summer of 2020, whether to implement the Irish border backstop the following January – the key controversy currently obsessing MPs.

The decision will be necessary because the chances of a trade deal being ready for January 2021 are precisely zero. It will take many more years than that.

Even if the UK ever puts forward realistic proposals, trade talks will be held up by MEP elections and the appointment of new commissioners – creating a vacuum ripe for new more Tory Euro-wars.

And the alternative to embracing the backstop – the UK staying under EU rules beyond 2020, while paying tens of billions of pounds more for the privilege – is scarcely more appealing.

Turn a corner? The reality is the same road, stretching far into the distance – but strewn with even bigger potholes and boulders.

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