How is European national politics affecting Brexit talks?

The internal politics of different EU countries has affected Brexit in different ways. Europe Correspondent Jon Stone walks us through the examples

Merkel and Macron are not expected to come to Britain’s rescue (AFP/Getty)

European leaders are gathering this weekend in Sharm el-Sheikh, where Theresa May hopes to discuss Brexit with them. But Britain’s exit from the EU is far from the only thing on their minds. So how is Europe’s domestic politics affecting the Brexit process?

Spain

Arguments over the status of Gibraltar play well in Spain, and Spanish governments of all stripes have tried to inject the issue into the Brexit process. So far this has been more of a nuisance than an existential threat, but Spain’s ability to veto any future trade deal could become a serious problem down the road. Spain disputes British sovereignty of the territory.

Ireland

Ireland is the EU country most directly affected by Brexit. In Ireland, to a much greater extent than the UK, a hard border on the island of Ireland is politically very unpopular. As a result, the Irish government has said it will not accept a border in any circumstances, even in a no-deal scenario. This has caused problems of its own: Ireland’s position has made it harder for the EU to convince sceptical Brexiteers that the backstop is necessary.

France

Emmanuel Macron isn’t going to Sharm el-Sheikh, but he has arguably been one of the most influential figures shaping the overall EU response to Brexit. A committed centrist, Mr Macron sees it as his duty to fight reactionary populism, a view shaped by the rise of the National Front in France. He sees Brexit as a strain of this politics and has pushed for the hardest line against Britain.

Germany

Germany is the dog that didn’t bark on Brexit. Constant predictions have emanated from Westminster that Angela Merkel would somehow ride to the rescue of the UK and cut a deal – but they have yet to materialise. In reality Germany is more focused on eurozone reform than Brexit. Polls suggest that Germans themselves are shocked and somewhat taken aback by the UK’s decision.

Hungary

Hungary’s government has had its fair share of run-ins with Brussels itself. As a result, it’s probably been the most supportive of the UK, occasionally breaking ranks to say Britain should be cut a good deal.

Poland

Poland is in a similar situation to Hungary, being the subject of a rule of law investigation by the European Commission. One sign of Poland’s willingness to cross the commission was its foreign minister coming out and suggesting changes to the Northern Irish backstop. He was promptly shot down.