No-deal Brexit still ‘most likely outcome’ of trade talks, despite claims of progress, says Number 10

European Commission president says ‘path to agreement’ has been found

Downing Street today insisted that a no-deal Brexit remains the “most likely” outcome of EU trade talks, despite claims in Brussels that there is now “a path to an agreement” after concessions from the UK on the thorny issue of common standards.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen gave her most optimistic assessment of negotiations yet as she told MEPs that a “way forward” has been found on most outstanding issues.

However, addressing the European Parliament just 15 days before the UK leaves the single market and customs union, she added that she could still not say for sure whether there would be a deal.

And Boris Johnson put the onus on Brussels to shift its position if any agreement is to be reached, telling MPs there was “every opportunity” for a deal, but it depended on the EU “seeing sense” on the UK’s demand to control its own laws and fishing waters. 

With chief negotiators David Frost and Michel Barnier engaged in intensive talks in Brussels, the comments from the two sides followed a familiar pattern from recent days of hints at progress by EU sources being countered by a British insistence that gaps remain.

They fuelled suspicions that both sides are indulging in theatrics designed to make an eventual outcome look favourable to them. One Tory MP told The Independent that Brussels claims of UK concessions amounted to no more than “spin”.

Taking questions in the House of Commons, the prime minister repeated his claim that the UK would anyway “prosper mightily” from a no-deal Brexit - which he refers to as “Australian terms” because Australia has no trade deal with the EU.

Later, his official spokesman told reporters: “We have made some progress in some areas, but it still remains the case that there are significant gaps.

“Our team remain in Brussels to continue to work to bridge those gaps. Our position is still that we want to reach a free trade agreement but the most likely outcome is still leaving on Australian terms.”

Downing Street has promised that any deal reached before the end of 2020 will be put to a vote in the House of Commons, and has not ruled out asking MPs to sit through the Christmas break to ensure that parliamentary procedures are completed.

Leader of the Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg will announce on Thursday a date for the House to break for its festive recess, with many MPs expecting to be told to come back to Westminster on Monday and Tuesday next week.

Claire Fox, a former Brexit Party MEP put in the House of Lords by Mr Johnson, voiced alarm at the prospect of a last-minute deal being rushed through.

“This is exactly what so many Leavers dread,” said Baroness Fox. “I’ve just been told  there may be an emergency recall over Christmas holidays if there is a deal. That is fine but how on earth can it be properly scrutinised? And after four and a half years, you at least want to know what you are signing up to.”

Addressing the European Parliament, Ms von der Leyen said: "I can not tell you whether there will be a deal or not but I can tell you there is a path to an agreement now. The path may be very narrow but it is there.

“The good news is that we have found a way forward on most issues, but this is now a case of us being so close and yet being so far away from each other because two issues still remain outstanding  – you know them a level playing field, and the fisheries."

Ms von der Leyen said a “big step forward” had been made on the decisive issue of common standards, though there was not yet total agreement on the subject. Fishing remains the most difficult issue.

She told MEPs: "On state aid we have made progress, based on common principles, guarantees of domestic enforcement, and the possibility to autonomously remedy the situation where needed.

"On standards we have agreed a strong mechanism of non-regression: that's a big step forward. That's to ensure that our common high labour, social, and environmental standards will not be undercut. Of course, difficulties still remain on the question of how to really future-proof fair competition.

"But I'm also glad to report that issues linked to governance by now are largely being resolved. On fisheries the discussion is still very difficult. We do not question the UK's sovereignty on its own waters, but we ask for predictability and stability for our fishermen and fisherwomen.

"In all honesty it sometimes feels like we will not be able to resolve this question, but we must continue to try and find a solution, and it is the only responsible and right course of action."

Speaking in the Commons, Mr Johnson gave no detail of any progress in talks.

He told MPs: “There’s every opportunity, every hope, that our friends and partners across the Channel will see sense and do a deal.

"All that that takes is for them to understand that the UK has a natural right like every other country to want to be able to control its own laws and its own fishing grounds.”

He added: “Whatever happens in the next few days, I know that this country will prosper mightily on the terms that we agree with our European friends whatever they may be, whether they’re Australian or Canadian."

Following Ms von der Leyen’s speech, a UK official in Brussels said: "We’ve made some progress, but we are still very far apart in key areas."

And leading backbench Conservative Brexiteer David Jones said Ms von der Leyen’s claims of movement from the UK side may amount to no more than “spin”.

“I hope we get a deal, provided it satisfies the government’s position on sovereignty,” Mr Jones told The Independent. "Clearly it would be good but it remains to be seen what the proposals are.

“The EU has been putting out a lot of spin over the last few days. There’s no detail in what she has said. I would be very surprised indeed if David Frost moved his position.”