Brexit: Blair report tells Johnson to delay completion by 12 months to avoid ‘disastrous no deal’

'Too late' to strike a full agreement before December cliff-edge, study commissioned by ex-prime minister concludes - and Europe is staring down barrel of 'a deep recession'

Boris Johnson must delay the completion of Brexit by 12 months to avoid “a disastrous no deal”, a report commissioned by Tony Blair says today.

The study, by a former government Brexit official, says it is now “too late” to strike an agreement with the EU, with the cliff-edge looming at the end of the December – and the talks deadlocked.

Instead, the prime minister is urged to recognise that “the responsible thing” to do – with all of Europe facing a deep recession – is to agree a standstill “implementation period” for up to one year.

This would not require Mr Johnson to go back on his rejection of an extension to the transition period, because it would genuinely implement a permanent trade deal, agreed “in-principle”.

Anton Spisak, the report’s author, argued there is “a landing zone for a sensible compromise” between the two sides, but warned: “It is very narrow.

“It is only possible if both sides show willingness to move away from principled stances and be realistic about what can be achieved by the end of this year. The alternative is a disastrous no deal.”

The report comes as the UK and EU launch another round of talks, but with little apparent hope of the breakthrough needed this month, if a deal is to be reached in time.

The two sides remain far apart on the UK’s demands to break free of EU rules and the remit of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), while securing a tariff-free and quota-free agreement for goods.

The other flashpoints are fishing rights and future police and judicial cooperation, with a UK expectation of sharing data outside of ECJ control.

The study, published by the Tony Blair Institute, concludes agreement is possible with compromise in each area, by:

* The UK agreeing to a system of sanctions if it were breach commitments to prevent it undercutting the EU – enforced by independent domestic regulators.

* On state aid, the UK maintaining an effective domestic anti-subsidy regime, based on a set of “common objectives” agreed with the EU.

* On environment and labour standards, both sides agreeing to uphold existing protections, with the UK committing to enforcement through independent bodies.

* On governance, an “overarching institutional framework” could bridge the divide between the EU’s push for a single agreement and the UK’s wish for multiple separate deals.

Calling for the implementation period, the report states: “Such a standstill period wouldn’t be an automatic extension of the transition period, which the UK government has already rejected.

“Rather, it would be an actual implementation period – legally contained within the future treaty – allowing both sides to complete the technical negotiations, ratify the deal, and implement it, without rushing through a quick and poor agreement and risking far bigger ratification and legal problems down the line.

“Failing to agree to such a time-limited standstill period when the UK and European economies are facing a deep recession following the Covid-19 pandemic would be a grave mistake.”