Brexit deal must be struck next week or ‘we have real problems’, Ireland warns

EU thought to be preparing a ‘take-it-or-leave-it’ offer for Boris Johnson within days

A Brexit deal must be struck by next week or “we have real problems”, the Irish foreign minister has warned.

Simon Coveney raised the chances of the UK crashing out without a trade agreement, amid suggestions that the EU is preparing a “take-it-or-leave-it” offer within days.

“I think it is quite possible that this could fall apart and we don’t get a deal. That wouldn’t shock me at all,” he told an online event, adding: "The UK understands only too well what's needed.”

The warning came as talks in London aiming to break the months-long deadlock were expected to continue past the end of this week – missing Brussels’ latest deadline of mid-November.

EU leaders are expected to begin ramping up their no-deal plans if there is no breakthrough before they meet, over a video conference, on Thursday next week.

The two sides remain far apart over the UK’s future state aid rules, how to resolve any trade disputes and their consequences and over fishing quotas.

The transition period – which shielded the UK from the huge disruption of leaving the single market and customs union – ends on 31 December, in just 50 days’ time.

Asked about prospects for a deal, Mr Coveney said it was “unlikely this week”, warning: “If we don’t have a deal at some point next week, I think we have real problems.

“Reaching a deal in the coming weeks is very difficult, but I also think it is doable. No deal is in nobody’s interests,” he told the event organised by the European Movement Ireland.

Mr Coveney added: “The EU also needs to show some compromise to accommodate many British asks.”

Next Thursday’s summit of the 27 heads of state and government, arranged to discuss the Covid-19 pandemic, is now shaping up to focus on the Brexit drama as well.

“If there isn’t good news by then, then you really have to say that time is up – it just isn’t possible,” one senior EU diplomat told The Guardian. “The leaders will need to see that it is there.”

A last-gasp conversation between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, is also possible, if thought likely to make the difference.

A key stumbling block is believed to be the EU’s demand for environmental, labour and social standards to develop in tandem, so-called dynamic alignment.

The UK is insisting it must be able to rewrite its rule book, but the EU has said it will not grant a “zero tariff, zero quota” deal if British companies are not operating under equivalent rules.

MEPs had insisted they needed to have a trade and security agreement in front of them by next Monday, to start the ratification process and vote on it on 16 December.

An extraordinary sitting of the European Parliament might be arranged as late as 28 December – just three days before the end of the transition period – it is now believed.

The prime minister’s spokesperson said: “Let’s get to the end of this week and see where we are. We’ve said on a number of occasions that time is in short supply.”