Brexit deal ‘possible’ by end of month, says Irish PM after meeting with Johnson

But Leo Varadkar warns: ‘There’s many a slip between cup and lip’

Irish premier Leo Varadkar has said that a treaty agreement on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU is “possible” by the end of October, amid reports of concessions from Boris Johnson ahead of next week’s make-or-break Brussels summit.

The comment came after more than two hours of talks with the prime minister at a country house hotel on Merseyside, which ended with the pair agreeing they could see “a pathway to a possible deal” and would “reflect further” on the way ahead.

Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay will now meet EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier in Brussels on Friday for talks which may determine whether ongoing technical talks can be stepped up to become genuine negotiations, while Mr Varadkar will report back on progress to the EU’s Taskforce 50 negotiation team.

There was no immediate response from Downing Street to reports in the Irish media of “very significant” movement from Mr Johnson on customs arrangements, which represent the biggest sticking point for Dublin in the proposals put forward by the PM earlier this month.

Mr Varadkar insists there must be no customs controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic in order to avoid damage to the all-island economy, while Mr Johnson has floated a system of checks within traders’ premises and elsewhere in the supply chain but not at the border itself.

Any move to harmonise customs arrangements would put at risk Mr Johnson’s putative majority for a deal in the House of Commons, by alienating the Conservatives’ DUP allies and hardline Tory Brexiteers who fear it would stop the UK from striking trade deals with the US and around the world.

While confirming his talks with the PM were “constructive”, the taoiseach cautioned that there were “issues yet to be fully resolved” relating both to the vexed issue of customs and to mechanisms to make any deal subject to the consent of the people of Northern Ireland.

And he indicated that there may not be sufficient time for a breakthrough by next week’s meeting of EU leaders at the European Council in Brussels, sparking speculation of a special Brexit summit later in the month.

“I think it is possible to come to an agreement to have a treaty agreed to allow the UK to leave the EU in an orderly fashion and to have that done by the end of October,” said Mr Varadkar.

But he added: “There’s many a slip between cup and lip and lots of things that are not in my control.”

After receiving flak from Brussels for hostile briefings earlier in the week, Downing Street sources were being notably tightlipped over the discussions at Thornton Hall Hotel on the Wirral.

Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar in conversation during Wednesday’s meeting at Thornton Manor Hotel (PA)

No 10 released a joint statement from the two leaders, which stated that “both continue to believe that a deal is in everybody’s interest”.

“They agreed that they could see a pathway to a possible deal,” said the statement. “They agreed to reflect further on their discussions and that officials would continue to engage intensively on them.”

Speaking at the airport before his return to Dublin, Mr Varadkar said: ”I am now absolutely convinced that both Ireland and Britain want there to be an agreement that’s in the interests of Ireland, the United Kingdom and the European Union as a whole.

“There are of course issues yet to be fully resolved. The first is the issue of consent and democracy, ensuring that any long-term arrangement that applies to Northern Ireland has the consent of the people of Northern Ireland. The second is the whole issue of customs, ensuring that there is no customs border between north and south.”

He added: “I would hope that what’s happened today would be sufficient to allow negotiations to resume in Brussels.”

Asked how quickly agreement could be reached, Mr Varadkar said: “I think all sides would like there to be an agreement next week at the council if possible, and there is obviously a further deadline after that, which is 31 October. So I would say a short pathway rather than a long one, but it’s impossible to predict that for sure.”

France’s Emmanuel Macron previously indicated that progress was needed before the end of this week to evaluate whether there was any prospect of agreement on a deal at the 17 October summit.

An agenda for the summit was expected to be released on Friday, though it could be held back if Brussels sees any indication of Johnson moving on elements of his plan which have proven unpalatable to the EU27.

Expectations of a deal reached rock bottom on Wednesday, after an address to the European parliament in which Mr Barnier said Johnson’s plans were “not really in a position where we’re able to find an agreement”.

Brussels objects that the UK proposal does not prevent a customs border in Ireland, does not provide immediately available or legally operable mechanisms, and gives a veto to Stormont.