Are the cross-party Brexit talks close to collapse and what happens next?
Politics Explained: For the first time, senior Conservative and Labour figures are suggesting simultaneously that the negotiations are going nowhere
Once again, the two sides are in the same Whitehall meeting room, for the same discussion about the same apparently doomed attempt to rescue Brexit – but, under the surface, the currents are finally shifting.
Six weeks after Theresa May begged Jeremy Corbyn for help, exasperation at the failure to make progress – and the sheer futility of the effort involved – is bubbling to the surface.
So, are the talks close to collapsing and if so, why? If there is another route to parliament passing a deal, what might that tell us about the prime minister’s future?
What’s striking is that, for the first time, senior figures in both the big parties are accepting simultaneously that the talks have almost run their course.
On the Labour side, Keir Starmer went public with the huge number of the party’s MPs – up to 150, he said – who will not back any deal unless it is put back to the public in a Final Say referendum.
Until now, the biggest stumbling block to an agreement was the Conservatives’ refusal to accept a permanent customs union, and that crucial obstacle remains, but now a second has been chucked on top.
If Labour MPs will never push through a deal without a fresh public vote – and Ms May will never concede that vote – what is the point of continuing?
The Tory voices against the talks staggering on are less noisy but, significantly, now stretch from the Brexiteers across to pro-EU figures, who previously backed them.
The likes of Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, and David Gauke, the justice secretary, are preparing to call on the prime minister to admit defeat, The Times was told.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt, a future leadership candidate, talked of “a crunch week” – strongly implying the game will be up by the end of it.
The Brexiteer dream is for the withdrawal agreement bill to quickly follow, so it can be crushed in the Commons; which is the very reason why that will not happen.
Instead, Ms May’s “plan B” is for... wait for it... more indicative votes. But with a cunning twist of using some form of proportional voting to try to avoid all options being defeated, as happened last time.
However, few in government believe they will find a way through, without Labour backing. One government source, asked what was the point, said simply: “We have tried everything else.”
It all points to more stalemate, by a different route – and the prime minister being forced out this summer.
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