Boris Johnson wins Tory confidence vote - but what happens next?

Rebel MPs described the result as being ‘fatal’ and ‘terminal’

The prime minister has insisted that a confidence vote which saw almost 150 of his own MPs try to force him from the helm of the Conservative party was a “decisive” victory for him.

Despite winning last night’s ballot by 211 votes to 148, Boris Johnson has found himself in the eye of a revolt against his premiership, the scale of which far surpassed the expectations of Mr Johnson’s allies - failing to put to bed questions over his leadership.

When Theresa May faced a confidence vote in 2018, she secured the support of 63 per cent of her party, but was still forced out within six months. Mr Johnson, who has lost the faith of 41 per cent of his party, amassed numbers significantly higher than the 36.9 per cent voting no confidence in Ms May.

One rebel Conservative MP described the result as being “fatal” and a second as being “terminal”, while a third told The Independent: “He’s finished. The cabinet ought to step in.”

But, ever brazen, the prime minister told reporters in No 10: “I think it’s an extremely good, positive, conclusive, decisive result which enables us to move on, to unite and to focus on delivery and that is exactly what we are going to do.”

Mr Johnson brushed aside speculation that he was now a lame duck prime minister who needed to call a snap election to secure a new mandate from the public.

The result was a “very good result for politics and for the country,” he maintained.

And allies of Mr Johnson insisted his victory should draw a line under the question of his leadership.

On the horizon, however, is the advancing threat of further damage to his leadership in the shape of two key by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton on 23 June.

In the meantime, Mr Johnson will remain as party leader - but what comes next for the PM?

Despite winning the vote, Mr Johnson finds himself in perilous territory.

Speaking to reporters ahead of yesterday’s vote, Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, acknowledged that Mr Johnson would not necessarily be safe even if he survived the vote.

Previous prime ministers have won confidence votes but resigned some months later because doubts in their leadership made it increasingly difficult to govern.

Although the Conservative committee’s rules say there could not be another confidence vote for 12 months, Sir Graham said those procedures could be changed.

“Technically it’s possible for rules to be changed but the rule at present is there would be a period of grace,” he told reporters.

The Sun earlier reported that Sir Graham is considering reducing the time limit to three or six months, or perhaps doing away with it all together.

This could be crucial for Mr Johnson as a disastrous result in the upcoming by-election could renew questions over his leadership and increase jostles over whether there should be another confidence vote.

Rebel MPs also threatened earlier on Monday to obstruct key parliamentary votes even if Mr Johnson survived the ballot, The Mail on Sunday reported.

As such, MPs could refuse to vote on the government’s legislation until the PM quits, the paper said.

Looking to a more certain future, the prime minister is set to face an inquiry by the Commons privileges committee into whether he knowingly misled the Commons when he repeatedly told MPs that there were no parties.

And chair of the committee has said it is “absolutely certain” that Boris Johnson will be forced from office if the cross-party panel finds he has misled the Commons.

“They can force him to quit,” chair Chris Bryant told Sky News.

“I’m absolutely certain that if the privileges committee decides that the prime minister has misled parliament and sends a report to the House to that effect, Boris Johnson may still try to cling on, but I would have brought that at that point every self-respecting member of the House of Commons would vote for whatever suspension is recommended by the committee.

“And if he’s suspended from the House, he’s out. That’s it.”

Mr Bryant said that the committee could take as long as four months to reach its conclusions.