Boris Johnson to ‘step up’ campaigning as he ‘braces for worst-case scenario by-election’

A Tory polling guru said the former prime minister would lose his Uxbridge and Ruislip in a by-election

Boris Johnson will step up campaigning in his constituency as concerns grow that he will face a by-election within months if he is found to have deliberately misled Parliament over Downing Street lockdown parties.

It comes after Tory polling guru Lord Hayward warned the former prime minister would lose his Uxbridge and Ruislip seat if he is punished severely by the cross-party committee and forced to fight for his seat.

According to The Times, Mr Johnson is planning for the “worst-case scenario”– that the committee imposes a 10-day suspension from the Commons, which could trigger a by-election.

Mr Johnson has been more active in the constituency since becoming a backbencher and is campaigning for a new hospital in Hillingdon and a new police station in Uxbridge. His efforts have been focused on local issues and his personal brand and there is no mention Rishi Sunak as prime minister on his website.

An ally of Johnson’s said the former prime minister would “intensify” campaigning in his constituency in anticpiation of the committee’s decision. “He is planning for the worst case, there’s no point in waiting until they’ve delivered their verdict,” they said. “He’ll be ready regardless of the outcome.”

Lord Hayward on Thursday told The Independent that Mr Johnson’s chances of winning were not good.

“Although the position for the Conservatives is improving, under current circumstances the Tories would lose a by-election in Uxbridge. There’s no question the party would face defeat to Labour,” he said.

Boris Johnson gave evidence to MPs in a three-hour grilling ( )

Jacob Rees-Mogg, a former Conservative cabinet minister and one of the few voices in a dwindling band of MPs still loyal to Mr Johnson – has said he expects the former prime minister to win if it comes to a by-election. He told Channel 4 News: “I think that if Boris Johnson went to a by-election he would win it comfortably. Because I think he’s winning in the court of public opinion, who see this as a kangaroo court.”

The former Brexit minister said the Johnson evidence was “very convincing” and claimed it was “perfectly reasonable” for the former PM to think No 10 leaving dos were in the remit of Covid regulations.

Mr Rees-Mogg’s remarkable claim about the “court of public opinion” comes as the latest YouGov poll shows 72 per cent of the public thinks Mr Johnson is dishonest, while only 13 per cent believe he is honest.

However, senior Tory Caroline Nokes said Mr Johnson’s political comeback is “finished” after his torrid grilling by MPs at the televised hearing.

Asked if Mr Johnson’s political career would be over in the event he is punished by the privileges committee for misleading the Commons, Ms Nokes told ITV’s Peston: “I think that Boris Johnson is finished anyway.”

“I think there was a very clear message from his own ministers back in the summer that they didn’t want him to carry on,” said the chair of the women and equalities committee. “As far as I’m concerned, Boris Johnson is not coming back as prime minister.”

Boris Johnson in 2019 giving his victory speech after winning the Uxbridge & Ruislip South constituency (Stefan Rousseau/PA) (PA Archive)

During Thursday night’s Question Time, host Fiona Bruce asked an audience of mainly Boris Johnson voters if they believed the former prime minister was telling the truth to MPs over lockdown parties – no one raised their hand.

If a suspension of at least 10 days is voted through by MPs, a by-election in Mr Johnson’s seat could be triggered. But many Tory MPs believe the committee may stop short of a 10-day suspension – even though they expect him to be found guilty of “recklessly” misleading the Commons.