Boris Johnson's 'terrifying' deal would lead to harder Brexit than Theresa May's, analysis suggests

Prime minister's plan leaves 'whole British economy and the NHS on the table for trade negotiations with Donald Trump'

Boris Johnson's deal would lead to a harder Brexit than under the terms of Theresa May's rejected agreement, with less alignment between the UK and the EU and more barriers to trade, according to new analysis.

The agreement struck by the EU and UK on Thursday also risks weakening workers' rights and environmental protections, according to the IPPR think-tank.

Researchers warned that the deal could lead to a "decade of deregulation" and would leave the NHS "on the table" during discussions with the US over a trade deal. This should "terrify" all but the most ardent Brexiteers, they said.

The IPPR said that Mr Johnson's deal, unlike Ms May's, would not see the UK enter into a customs union with the EU if no trade deal can be agreed as a way of keeping the Northern Irish border open.

This means that there would likely be new barriers imposed on UK-EU trade in the event that no future trade deal is agreed. New customs and regulatory checks would also be needed on goods travelling between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK - a fact that appears to have cost Mr Johnson the DUP's support for his deal.

The new backstop plan only applies to Northern Ireland, whereas Ms May's would have applied to the whole UK. Because of this, the rest of the UK would operate on the same terms as in a no-deal scenario if thebackstop comes into effect. While Northern Ireland would not impose tariffs on goods travelling to and from the EU, Great Britain would need to.

Mr Johnson has also removed the so-called "level playing field" protections from the Withdrawal Agreement. These include workers' rights and environmental protections and are designed to ensure fair competition between EU states.

While the Political Declaration that accompanies the deal says standards should be maintained "at the current high levels", this document is not legally binding - a key difference that is likely to fuel concerns among some Labour MPs who were mulling backing the deal. The IPPR said there was now "less certainty" that these protections would be maintained.

The think-tank warned earlier in the week that workers' rights could be gradually eroded by the government after Brexit if the UK left the EU without a deal.

Commenting on the latest analysis, Tom Kibasi, director of the IPPR, said: “This deal opens the door to a decade of deregulation. It puts workers’ rights, environmental protections, and consumer standards at risk. It places the whole British economy and the NHS on the table for trade negotiations with Donald Trump. So the deal may satisfy the [European Research Group of Tory Brexiteers] but it should terrify everyone else."

“Even if the deal passes, which looks unlikely, Britain now faces years of difficult negotiations with the EU to conclude a trade agreement. This is only the end of the beginning of Brexit.”

Marley Morris, the think-tank's associate director for immigration, trade and EU relations, added: “Boris Johnson’s new deal with the EU paves the way for a rupture with the EU. The new Political Declaration reveals he is heading towards a more distant UK-EU relationship than Theresa May proposed, involving more trade barriers and less cooperation.

"And the Withdrawal Agreement removes the arrangements for a UK-EU customs union, thereby eliminating a key barrier in his ambitions for a hard Brexit.​"