Omicron R-rate could be as high as 3.47 – preliminary research
University of East Anglia Professor Alastair Grant has projected the reproduction rate of the new variant based on UKHSA figures.
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.The R-rate for the Omicron coronavirus variant could be as high as 3.47, preliminary research suggests.
Professor Alastair Grant, from the University of East Anglia has predicted the reproduction rate of the new variant based on figures from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
He said the high figure for Omicron is due to “a mixture of it being good at transmitting itself and being a partial vaccine escape”, adding that it is likely to become the next dominant strain.
Prof Grant projected Omicron’s R-value at between 2.75 and 4.4.
This compares with a current overall R-rate of between 0.9 and 1.1 in England according to the Government’s latest figures.
Prof Grant added that as a worst case scenario, there may already be 2,500 Omicron cases in England, and that 2% of positive swabs taken on December 4 were likely to have been Omicron.
He said: “These numbers are very preliminary.
“They are likely to be overestimates as testing has focused on people at higher risk of infection because of their travel history or contact with confirmed Omicron cases.
“But it is very likely that Omicron will quickly come to dominate cases in England, and that overall case numbers will increase from their current levels.”
The R-rate is the average number of people that one infected person will pass a virus on to.
England’s latest overall R-number means that on average, every 10 people with coronavirus will infect between nine and 11 others.
A total of 440 Omicron cases had been confirmed in the UK as of Tuesday – 333 in England, 99 in Scotland five in Wales and three in Northern Ireland.