Poll puts support for Scottish independence at 55%

An Ipsos Mori survey for STV News recorded the largest lead for Yes seen since the election.

More than 1,000 adults in Scotland were polled (David Cheskin/PA) (PA Archive)

An opinion poll has put support for Scottish independence at 55%, the highest level seen in polling data since the election.

The Ipsos Mori survey for STV News showed 55% backing for Yes and 45% for No among likely voters when undecideds were excluded.

Throughout 2021 the gap between No and Yes has been narrower in most successive opinion polls, with No maintaining a lead following the Scottish Parliament election.

The Ipsos Mori poll also found the SNP maintained a strong lead in Scottish Parliament voting intention in both the constituency and regional list votes, with Nicola Sturgeon’s party on 52% and 43% respectively.

On the First Minister’s approval rating, 58% said they were satisfied with the job she is doing while 38% were dissatisfied.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s ratings stood at 45% satisfied and 28% dissatisfied.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross’s ratings were negative, with 24% saying they were satisfied with his performance and 51% saying they were dissatisfied.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s job approval was at the lowest level recorded by Ipsos Mori in Scotland, with 80% dissatisfied and just 16% satisfied.

A representative sample of 1,107 Scottish adults were interviewed by phone between November 22 and 29.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos Mori Scotland, said: “This latest poll from Ipsos Mori and STV News indicates that the argument for Scottish independence is far from over, with a slight improvement for the Yes side.

“Given the margins of error around polling estimates, however, neither the Yes or No camps should be confident of victory at this point.

“The Yes camp may be benefiting from what has been a very bad week for Boris Johnson and the Conservatives at Westminster, with fieldwork taking place after heated debate about MPs’ second jobs.

“This is certainly reflected in Johnson’s own ratings, which have fallen to a new low.”

The poll also covered the Scottish Government’s performance since the Holyrood elections in May.

Some 84% felt the Government has done a good job in ensuring people are vaccinated against coronavirus as soon as possible.

However there was less approval for its handling of public services.

On improving the NHS, 48% said the Scottish Government is doing a bad job and 40% said it is doing a good job.

On improving the education system, 46% said the Government is doing a bad job and 35% said it is doing a good job.

Responding to the poll, SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “I welcome this extremely encouraging poll that shows the majority of people in Scotland would back Scotland choosing a better future as an independent country.

“However, we do not take anything for granted and will continue to make the case to the people of Scotland of how we can build a fairer, greener and more prosperous nation as an independent country.”

Pam Nash, chief executive of the campaign group Scotland in Union, said: “There has also been consistent support for remaining part of the UK in most polls for several months now.

“Clearly the constitutional question divides the people of Scotland, which is why it would be reckless for any political party to exploit that division when the entire focus should be on what really matters to people – the NHS, education, jobs and the climate emergency.”