Fact check: IMF forecast UK to grow slower than the US in 2024 and 2025

UK economic output is expected to rise by 0.7% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, compared with 2.7% and 1.9% in the US.

The IMF’s forecast for UK real GDP this year was upgraded in May (Victoria Jones/PA) (PA Wire)

A Conservative Party candidate has claimed in an election leaflet that economic growth is “projected to be faster than the USA”.

Sir Michael Fabricant, who is standing in the Lichfield constituency, wrote: “Economic growth has been upgraded by the International Monetary Fund and projected to be faster than the USA.”

Evaluation

The claim does not match the most recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Real gross domestic product (GDP) was projected to grow faster in the US than the UK in 2024 and 2025.

The facts

In its latest World Economic Outlook, from April this year, the IMF projected UK real GDP will grow by 0.5% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. In the same report the US is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025.

In a May report which only examined the UK, the IMF did upgrade its forecast for the British real GDP, to 0.7% in 2024, while keeping the 2025 forecast unchanged at 1.5%. This is, however, still below the latest forecast for the US.

Real GDP had been downgraded in the April report.

Sir Michael has been contacted for comment.

Links

Post on X (archived post and image)

IMF – World Economic Outlook, April 2024 (archived)

IMF – United Kingdom: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission (archived)