Pubs reopening for Easter would be premature, expert warns

Warning comes as pub giant Young’s argues there is ‘no reason why pubs cannot open in April’

(AFP via Getty Images)

Experts have said that discussions over pubs reopening in April are “premature” and that pub bosses have to accept it risks the danger of “going back to square one”.

The warning was issued amid a report from the Mail on Sunday that Number 10 will permit outdoor dining at pubs within one’s household bubble in time for Easter, as Boris Johnson prepares to announce the UK’s route of lockdown on 22 February.

It also comes as pub giant Young’s has claimed there is “no reason why pubs cannot open in April” and that people need to be given back their “liberty and much-loved pub”.

But Dr Bharat Pankhania, senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter medical school, told the PA news agency: "It’s premature because we don’t know what the state of cases will be in the country at that point in time.

"It may be that the cases are low and that we have regained control because we are now managing to keep the case numbers down and our immunisation levels have been sufficiently high to have a majority of the vulnerable population immunised and therefore protected," he said, highlighting the "criteria" required.

Dr Pankhania, who has widespread experience of advising on national communicable disease control action plans at national and international level, added: "What the executives of pubs etc etc need to know is that failure to get it right equals back to square one.

"And back to square one equals much more pain economically, much more hardship.

"It is better to get it right than to prematurely bow to pressure and open up when you’re not ready to open up," he said.

Dr Pankhania said all activities where human-to-human interactions occur involve risk, adding that the consumption of alcohol makes people drop their guard.

"Whichever way you want to cut it, you drink alcohol to relax and have a bonhomie with your friends.

"One of the consequences of relaxing is that you drop your guard," he said.

Dr Julian Tang, honorary associate professor at the University of Leicester, said we now know how Covid-19 spreads and should not have to keep seeing numbers at this stage, before making decisions on reopening.

The consultant virologist told PA: "The numbers are now just surveillance to monitor the virus as it is spreading – to see the trends in response to various interventions, which is different.

"Opening pubs will bring more people into closer contact with each other – this will allow the virus to spread – we already know and understand this concept.

"The virus has mutated now with various more transmissible, partial vaccine-escape variants co-circulating.

"So opening pubs too early in April before we are sure of the impact of the vaccine will likely generate more ‘statistics’, but they may not be the numbers that they want to see – and it may trigger another local or national lockdown if this is done too early before enough of the rest of the population has been vaccinated."

Dr Tang added: "Asking to see the numbers and not reacting until you do – is inevitably doomed to fail – because by the time you see the numbers, the virus is already spreading – as we have seen in the two previous lockdowns."

In a letter to the Prime Minister, the CEO of Young’s Pubs Patrick Dardis said that the pub industry is “part of the solution”, and argued that a “successful vaccination programme is meaningless if it does nothing to aid our economic recovery”.

Mr Dardis referred to pubs sector CEOs resigning from a forum, adding: “We are shocked and appalled that the government is basing its decisions to keep the great British pub closed on unfounded and unproven statistics.

“We are exasperated at the obvious lack of interest and respect we are getting from this government,” he added.

A government spokeswoman said that: “We are deeply disappointed that some pub leaders have decided to step back from meetings with ministers.

She added: “As we plan our way out of restrictions, we will continue to engage relentlessly with the hospitality sector, as we have done throughout this pandemic, and our door remains firmly open.

"We understand that this is an extremely tough time for the hospitality sector, but we are supporting businesses with one of the most comprehensive and generous packages of business support in the world worth £280 billion.

Mr Johnson was asked on Saturday if people could be drinking in pub gardens in April, and told reporters: "If you don’t mind I’m going to ask you just wait a little bit longer, give us some more time to look at the data about what’s happening, look at the way the numbers are coming down, [we must] study also I think, very importantly, the efficacy of the vaccines - are they working in the way that we hope that they are?

"Making sure that they’re really helping along with the lockdown to drive down the incidents. That’s the key thing.

"I’m optimistic, I won’t hide it from you. I’m optimistic, but we have to be cautious."