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Polls show support for Blair depends on finding banned arms

John Curtice
Wednesday 02 April 2003 00:00 BST
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No fewer than three polls have suggested that the rise in support for war in Iraq, which was seen immediately after the decision to engage in hostilities, has now ended.

YouGov reports that only 54 per cent of Britons now believe the United States and Britain were right to go to war, five points down on the proportion taking that view at the end of last week. One ICM poll found a five-point drop to 50 per cent in a week in the proportion saying they approved of the way the Prime Minister was handling the crisis, while a second ICM poll produced a two-point fall to 54 per cent in the proportion saying they approved of the war.

The most immediate and apparently obvious reason for public unease is the perception that the war is not going as well as many had originally hoped. On the day that hostilities broke out nearly a fortnight ago, 44 per cent thought that the war would by now be drawing to a conclusion. Now, well over half accept it is going to take months rather than weeks.

But if public attitudes to the war were simply determined by the prospects for a quick victory then support for the action should have started to fall away fairly rapidly by now. That it has not suggests that Tony Blair may not have that much to fear from the immediate political consequences of a longer-than-expected war.

Instead, the public's continued ambivalence to the war reflects two far more deep-seated but conflicting emotions. On the one hand, few wish to see Saddam Hussein remain in power. On the other hand, doubts remain that the United States and Britain needed to take the course of action they have chosen .

According to Populus, 61 per cent still think that Britain and America should not have gone to war without United Nations backing, while 64 per cent say the war will prove to have been justified only if Iraqi weapons of mass destruction are eventually found. So, seemingly, Mr Blair needs to find Iraqi biological or chemical weapons and acquire a guaranteed role for the UN in post-war Iraq if this is ever to be a truly popular war.

John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University

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