London faces tier 3 as Covid infection rate becomes highest in England

Capital is one of three English regions where case rates continued to rise in week when lockdown ended

London is on the brink of being placed under tier 3 restrictions, with new government data showing the capital’s coronavirus infection rate is the highest in England.

Data in Public Health England’s weekly surveillance report suggests there were 191 new cases per 100,000 Londoners in the week to 6 December, up from 158 in the week prior.

The capital is one of three regions where infection rates were still rising during the week in which England’s national lockdown ended – alongside East England, where the rate rose from 116 to 147, and the South East, which saw a rise from 142 to 160.

And in the final week of lockdown, London’s infection rate was higher than dozens of areas placed under tier 3 restrictions, including Manchester, Middlesbrough, Leeds, Bristol and Newcastle-upon-Tyne.

While London’s mayor Sadiq Khan has said he does not believe tier 3 is “inevitable”, government officials are due to review England’s tier allocations on 16 December.

Read more: What do the Tier 3 restrictions mean for you?

But the disturbing new data follows calls from top public health experts for London to be placed into the highest tier of restrictions immediately, with one warning the city could act as a “super-spreader”.

“If London doesn't want hospitals to be full over Christmas the government need to get a grip today,” Professor John Ashton, a former PHE regional director, told the BBC on Wednesday, adding: “Deaths will start going up during the Christmas period and new year unless something is done.

“London could become a super spreader, sending coronavirus to other parts of the country over Christmas and making a third wave of infections likely in January.”

At a meeting, London MPs were given the strong impression that a move to tier 3 is likely, although a decision will not be revealed until next Thursday – to kick-in two days later.

They were told that Covid cases in the capital are too high and are growing, with particular alarm about the situation in the outer boroughs in Essex and Kent.

In addition, Harrow and Haringey were said to be “in the red”, with higher infection rates among young people and the looming travel over Christmas sparking further concern.

The Independent understands that pleas from Tory MPs to split up London – to keep outer boroughs out of tier 3, if that decision is taken – were rejected, despite Boris Johnson promising to consider a more local system.

“They were told no way, basically, that it’s unworkable,” said one MP at the meeting with health minister Helen Whately and Kevin Fenton, a regional director at Public Health England.

But, asked on Thursday morning whether Tier 3 was “looking inevitable now”, London’s mayor told Sky News: “No, I don’t think so.”

Mr Khan added: “We’re working incredibly hard with Londoners across our city to make sure they follow the rules. 

“We’re particularly worried as Christmas approaches if we were to go into Tier 3 it would have a really serious impact on our pubs, bars and restaurants. That’s why the message stays the same – stay vigilant, follow the rules.”

The mayor had earlier acknowledged “growing speculation among political leaders in the capital that London needs to move to the highest tier”, but added: “Some question whether it would be effective for London to move to a tougher regime for only a few days before the festive period – when conditions are being loosened across the country.”

And during a Downing Street press conference on Thursday evening, the health secretary announced that all secondary school pupils in the hardest-hit parts of London, Essex and Kent would undergo mass testing, with new infections thought to be most prevalent within this age group. 

But Matt Hancock remained tight-lipped on whether a move to Tier 3 would be announced next week, insisting: “I don’t think it’s right to pre-empt that decision.”

“However, we do look at the data daily and we have seen those worrying rises, not just in London but in other parts of the south east and east of England as well,” he added.

England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty appeared somewhat more forthright, saying: “We need to look very seriously at these areas and ask the question, ‘are there enough measures or do we have to have more?’ And that’s something ministers will have to look at next week.

“But I think if these rates were going up towards the tail-end of lockdown, that is quite a concerning situation, so I think we need to keep quite a close eye on that.”

Mr Khan welcomed the mass testing programme for pupils, saying: “We have seen before how the virus moves from younger age groups to older groups.”

“Nobody wants the capital to face Tier 3 restrictions, but with cases rising we face a tipping point. That’s why it’s important that the government is providing this much-needed testing support and it is essential that Londoners continue to follow the rules to reduce the spread of the virus,” he added.