‘Emerging threat’: Rising number of suspected incels referred to UK counter-terror police

Incels being monitored as an ‘emerging threat’ as inquest considers motivation behind Plymouth shooting

A rising number of suspected radical misogynists are being referred to the Prevent counter-terrorism scheme, as security services monitor them as an “emerging threat”.

The numbers of so-called incels have been revealed for the first time, as an increasing proportion of police resources are taken up by people falling outside of previously dominant jihadist and extreme right-wing groups.

A total of 77 suspected incels were referred to Prevent, which aims to stop people being drawn into terrorism in 2021-22, with 23 of those going on to receive ideological mentoring.

It comes as an inquest considers the role of incel beliefs in the 2021 Plymouth shooting, where Jake Davison murdered five people in Britain’s worst mass shooting in over a decade.

Short for “involuntary celibate”, incels believe they are unable to have romantic or sexual relationships with women, and men identifying with the movement have carried out several mass shootings in the US and Canada.

Detective Chief Superintendent Maria Lovegrove, the national lead for Prevent, said one of its crucial roles was “providing important indicators of emerging risks, particularly in light of incidents in other parts of the world”.

“This is demonstrated by the inclusion, for the first time, of referrals relating to the incel subculture or school massacres in the 2021-22 Prevent statistics,” she added.

“Whilst not currently considered terrorist ideologies, they have the ability to inspire terrible acts of violence – and it is therefore important that Prevent works to disengage people from these beliefs.”

Det Ch Supt Lovegrove said that although numbers of incels were “very low”, counter-terror police were tracking emerging threats in an increasingly complex pool of people who are “younger and increasingly driven not just by ideology, but other complex factors such as mental ill health, neurodivergence, and personal grievances”.

“Established terrorist ideologies still pose the most significant threat of radicalisation, but young men who are fascinated by, and seek out, all types of extremist or violent content online are increasingly prevalent in referrals to Prevent,” she added.

Police did not declare the Plymouth shooting a terror attack because they believed that Davison was primarily driven by mental health issues and personal grievances, rather than a “political, religious, racial or ideological cause” that would meet the UK’s legal definition of terrorism.

MI5’s position is that incel ideology should not be treated automatically as terrorism, but recognised as a “potential terrorist motivation” and assessed on a case-by-case basis.

An inquest is examining the role of incel beliefs in the 2021 Plymouth shooting by Jake Davison (PA)

Of around 6,500 referrals made to Prevent in the year to March 2022, a third were classed as people – many of them children – who were vulnerable but had “no ideology or counter-terror risk”.

A fifth were suspected far-right extremists, while 16 per cent were flagged over Islamist radicalisation and a similar number said they were “conflicted”, meaning there were indications of more than one ideology.

There were 154 referrals (2 per cent) over apparent obsessions with school massacres, such as the Columbine shooting, and 77 for suspected incels (1 per cent).

The Independent understands that while the numbers have not previously been made public, the number of suspected incels flagged to Prevent has increased.

There were a further 100 referrals (2 per cent) due to concerns related to other types of radicalisation, which can include international causes, the far left and Northern Ireland-related extremism.

The Independent previously reported how terror offenders in the UK are being inspired by school shootings in the US, with some voicing wishes to commit mass murders.

Last year, Britain’s youngest known terror offender was sentenced after claiming to be acquiring guns to commit an atrocity similar to the 1999 Columbine High School massacre.

He had researched school shooting plots in the UK, including a 2018 case where two boys were jailed for conspiring to attack their North Yorkshire school.

Several other teenagers and young men prosecuted for far-right terror offences had researched US school shootings and celebrated perpetrators online.

Almost a third of people referred to Prevent were children under the age of 15, and most cases are flagged by schools because of a legal duty on teachers to report potential extremism. A similar proportion were young people aged between 15 and 20.

More than half of all people referred were referred to other services, such as mental health, education and the police, a quarter were considered for ideological intervention and 17 per cent “required no further action”.

A review of the Prevent programme was triggered in 2019, following allegations of discrimination against Muslims, and both ineffectiveness and over-reach, but has still not been published.

The Home Office has been accused of “interfering” in the independent report, which was handed to the government in April 2022, and a leaked draft showed that it called for a renewed focus on Islamism despite years of falling Prevent referrals in that category.

A spokesperson said: “The government is currently reviewing the recommendations of the Independent Review and will publish the report and our response in due course.”