Covid: True number of UK omicron cases ‘likely to be 10,000 and could hit one million by end of year’

Javid raises fresh prospect of ‘unsustainable pressure’ on the NHS as variant ‘more transmissible’

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The new omicron variant of coronavirus is significantly more transmissible than delta - and more than a million people could be infected with it by the end of the month on its current spread, the health secretary has warned.

Sajid Javid told MPs there were already 568 confirmed cases - but that the real number was “probably closer to 10,000”.

And he raised the prospect of more people having to go to hospital and “unsustainable pressure” on the NHS.

At the same time, the UK’s leading health officials announced omicron is likely to take over from delta as the dominant UK variant.

“We’re confident that omicron is significantly more transmissible than delta,” Mr Javid said.

He was speaking as Boris Johnson announced an introduction of plan B - which includes compulsory face masks in indoor venues and work-from-home guidance, because of the rapid spread.

Mr Javid said delta cases had doubled in around seven days but for omicron “based on the latest data from here and around the world, our latest analysis is that it’s been around, it’s between 2.5 and three days”.

“Although there are only 568 confirmed omicron cases in the UK, we know that the actual number of infections will be significantly higher.

“The UK health security agency estimates that the number of infections are approximately 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases, and so the current number of infections is probably closer to 10,000.

“UKHSA also estimate that at the current observed doubling rate of between two-and-a-half and three days, by the end of this month, infections could exceed one million.”

Mr Javid added: “There is still a lot to learn, but some important data has emerged recently. This has made the virus an even more formidable foe.”

Speaking at the same time, the prime minister said the growth of omicron mirrored that South Africa, where numbers of patients being taken to hospital were doubling every week.

The new restrictions will be reviewed on 5 January and are due to expire on 26 January.

Mr Javid warned that the UK faced a “perilous winter” with omicron infections rising, even with the protection of vaccines.

“We’ve come so far over the course of this year thanks to the defences we’ve built against this deadly virus,” he said.

“Now, as we face this new threat, we must draw on the same spirit that has got us here - strengthening our defences and thinking about what we can do to help get this virus under control.”

Mr Javid was heckled by Tory MPs when he said: “We take these steps with a heavy heart, but we do so confident that we’re doing everything in our power to keep our nation safe this winter.”

He noted South Africa has a younger population, is in summer, and has a high level of antibodies from natural infection, all of which slow the spread.

“Even if severity is lower or the same as delta, high transmissibility means that the omicron variant can still have a severe impact with the threat of more hospitalisations and unsustainable pressure on the NHS,” he said.

He added: “We don’t yet have comprehensive data on the severity of this virus, but rising rates of hospitalisation in South Africa show that it certainly has the potential to cause harm.”