Coronavirus: UK’s R rate rises to between 1.3 and 1.5 despite three-week 10pm pub curfew

The range was between 1.2 to 1.5 last week

The coronavirus R rate for the UK is estimated to have risen slightly to between 1.3 and 1.5, according to the latest government data, reflecting very little change in the spread of the disease despite more than three weeks of a 10pm pub curfew. 

It means that, on average, every 10 people who test positive for coronavirus will go on to infect between 13 and 15 more people.

The R rate has increased from the previous range of 1.2 to 1.5.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which provides the weekly estimate, said its view is that “this week’s estimates are reliable, and that there is still widespread growth of the epidemic across the country”.

The figures indicate that more than three weeks on since hospitality venues were ordered to shut at 10pm, the reproductive rate of the virus has not been suppressed. 

Transmission is "not slowing", said Sage, adding: "There is no clear evidence that the epidemic's trajectory has changed in the past month."

Boris Johnson, the prime minister, had previously defended the policy as being “one way we see of driving down the R [rate] without doing excessive economic damage”. 

Experts said the curfew was never discussed with Sage, with one member, Professor John Edmunds, describing the policy as “fairly trivial” and predicting it would have “a very small impact on the pandemic”. 

Sage figures show that the latest growth rate range, which indicates how fast the number of infections is changing on a daily basis, is estimated to be between plus four per cent and plus seven per cent.

If the growth rate is more than 0, it means the epidemic is growing. If the growth rate is less than 0, then the epidemic is shrinking.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also published its weekly infection figures, showing a steep rise in the number of people in England with the coronavirus. 

It estimated that one in 160 people had coronavirus in England last week, compared to one in 240 the week before that.

The ONS estimates that last week there were about 27,900 new daily infections in England – a 62 per cent rise from the estimated 17,200 new cases the previous week.

The weekly figures come as Lancashire enters a tier 3 lockdown, joining Liverpool City Region in the Very High level of coronavirus restrictions.