Coronavirus: ‘Inevitable’ London will face tier 2 lockdown within days

Capital set to pass ‘trigger point’ this week, mayor Sadiq Khan warns

London looks almost certain to face stricter coronavirus restrictions within days as infections rise in the capital.  

The city has been given the lowest alert level of the three-tier local lockdown strategy being introduced across England this week. The “medium” risk rating means Londoners face no new restrictions for the time being.

But local leaders believe tougher rules are “inevitable” if the spread of the virus continues on its current trajectory, with mayor Sadiq Khan warning the capital could be upgraded to “high” alert this week.

He said: “The virus is now spreading very quickly in every corner of London. The number of cases is rapidly increasing and all the indicators we look at are moving in the wrong direction.

"As of today, London is at 'medium' in the government's new alert levels. However, Londoners should understand that this could change very quickly – potentially even this week."

London recorded 78 new cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 in the week up to 9 October, the latest period for which full data is available, far below national hotspots such as Nottingham (843 cases), Knowsley (657) and Liverpool (609.)

But Mr Khan said on Tuesday the London-wide average for the past seven days had climbed to about 90 new cases per 100,000 population.

"Which means, I'm afraid, it's inevitable over the course of the next few days London will have passed a trigger point to be in the second tier,” he told Sky News.

One factor in determining whether a region moves up to tier 2 coronavirus lockdown rules is thought to be recording 100 per 100,000 cases.

Some London boroughs including Ealing (118 new cases in the week up to 9 October), Richmond-upon-Thames (117) and Hackney (109) are exceeding that rate, although others such as Croydon (58) and Lewisham (57) remain far lower and have seen a fall in the number of new infections.

However, Mr Khan said the city as a whole would have to move to tougher restrictions rather than individual boroughs receiving tailored alert levels.

"Many Londoners work in one borough, live in another borough, study in another borough, go to a restaurant in another borough so we're really keen to go as one city,” he said.

Downing Street did not rule out London being moved into tier 2, but stressed that changes in alert level were not automatically triggered by case numbers hitting a certain numerical threshold.

Deenan Pillay, professor of virology at University College London, told The Independent he expected infections to continue to climb in the capital.  

“All the evidence is pointing to us moving in the same direction” as northwest and northeast England, where millions of people are under tougher restrictions due to surging case numbers, he said.

Some have suggested London’s severe outbreak early in the coronavirus pandemic could convey some level of protection on the city during the second wave. But Prof Pillay said the number of people who have been infected in the capital – estimated to be no more than a fifth – meant any level of immunity would be too low to stop the virus spreading.

He added: “And of course because of the nature of London, there are a lot of people who can’t stay at home, have to work in gig economy. Uber drivers, taxi drivers, public transport staff, essential workers in hospitals and so – there there’s a lot of movement of people around in London and that gives further opportunity for infections to spread from younger people to older people.”

Prof Pillay, a member of the Independent Sage group of scientists scrutinising the government’s coronavirus response, supported calls for “more stringent measures” in London.

But he predicted the “really disappointing” three-tier local lockdown system would not be enough and said he believed a national circuit-breaker lockdown was “urgently” needed.

The new local lockdown system is to come into force on Wednesday.

A spokesperson for London’s City Hall said “discussions with London leaders, scientific advisers and the government will continue over the coming days and the mayor will be as clear as possible with Londoners about what they can expect as soon as possible”.

"Nobody wants to see new measures that will impact on businesses in London such as the hospitality sector – least of all the mayor – but we have a responsibility to act on the evidence if it will save lives,” they added.

Boris Johnson’s official spokesman said: “There’s a process for considering whether further measures are needed in all parts of the country and I don’t think it would be appropriate for me to pre-empt that.

“We look at a wide range of different data and take advice from the Joint Biosecurity Centre and local health officials on the ground, so we look not only at infection rates but also the rate of positive tests, admissions to hospitals, and admissions to intensive care units.

“We continue to closely monitor the data in all parts of England and I think we have shown that if it’s judged additional measures are necessary we haven’t hesitated to act.”