Coronavirus rates among young people increasing 'rapidly' in UK, Whitty warns

Figures revealed as Boris Johnson tightens rules on social gatherings

(Independent)

Coronavirus infection rates among young people aged 20-29 in the UK have increased to more than 41 per 100,000, as chief medical officer Chris Whitty said numbers of cases have been “going up much more rapidly” over the past few days.

The figures were revealed as Boris Johnson tightened restrictions on social contacts, putting on a limit of six people on all gatherings, inside or outside, anywhere in England.

It is understood that the decision to impose the new, simplified rules were agreed after scientists warned ministers that the surge in cases among the young  must be nipped in the bud before it spreads to older people, who are more vulnerable to serious illness or death from Covid-19.

Prof Whitty said that data suggested that without action Britain would be on a path “extremely similar” to France where the numbers had continued to rise.

However in Belgium the authorities took “decisive action” which led to the rates stabilising and then falling.

“This is clear indication that if you act rapidly and decisively there is a good chance of bringing rates back down under control,” he said.

From an average of 12.5 cases per 100,000 in the UK just a week ago, infection rates have shot up to 54.5 among the 19-21 age group and 48 for 17 and 18 year—olds. Overall, the UK infection rate is running at 19.7 per 100,000 - on the brink of the threshold of 20 above which countries are considered for quarantine restrictions.

And medical experts are confident that this surge in cases is not due to ramping up testing rates, as the percentage of tests coming up positive also rose from around 2.5 to 6 per cent.

The crucial R rate - the number of people infected by each person with coronavirus - is now believed over one, the point at which the disease risks spreading exponentially within the community. However, there has been no rise in the rates of infection detected among school-age children or the elderly.

Whitty said the Government’s policy on schools may have to be “looked at again” if infections among  children rise.

“At the moment rates are still very low,” he said. "If there were to be a change in that, there were to be a much broader increase in rates including of school age children, I think the current policies would have to be looked at again as in the other areas.

“But at this point, the rates in schools are very low. There will be some school outbreaks, but that is the current situation.”

It comes ahead of the expected increase in cases in the winter period as people socialise more indoors and become more susceptible to respiratory infections generally.

Prof Whitty said the current restrictions should not be seen as “a short term thing” lasting only a matter of weeks but declined to put a date on how long they will remain.

In the absence of an effective vaccine, it is understood experts believe the situation will be difficult for at least the next six months and the new restrictions are likely to have to remain in place for  three months or more.

Prof Whitty said: "The period between now and spring is going to be difficult because this is a respiratory virus.

“I think in terms of the existing restrictions, people should see this as the next block of time that may not last for many months, but it is very unlikely to be over in just two or three weeks.

“So people shouldn’t just see this as a very short term thing, they should see it over the next period. But I think putting an exact time on it is, I think, very difficult.”

The government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance told the press conference there was a “reasonable chance” a coronavirus vaccine will become available next year.

Of 200 projects around the world, six were in the final stages of testing, with the first read-outs expected before the end of the year, he said.

"Hopefully before the end of the year we will get some indications that some do work and have the right safety profile. I think there is a reasonable chance that therefore we can think about the possibility of vaccination next year at larger levels.”