Congestion charge success reduces revenue to £9m

The London congestion charge has made less money than expected because thousands of motorists have stayed away from the centre of the capital. Fees paid by road users in the first month of the controversial project – the country's biggest experiment with congestion charging – have been estimated at £9m.

A member of the board for Transport for London (TfL) said traffic in the eight square miles of the zone had fallen by 20 per cent, rather than the 15 per cent planners expected.

If motorists continue to stay away in such numbers, TfL could be deprived of as much as £6m of the revenue it hoped to raise by the end of the first year of operation.

London's success in cutting traffic has persuaded the Mayor of Tokyo to consider introducing a similar scheme.

In Britain, the next step could be for the Department of Transport to investigate a scheme for motorway charging.

The £5 daily charge for non-residents proved more effective than forecast, said Professor Stephen Glaister of Imperial College's transport department, who helped to advise the Mayor, Ken Livingstone, on the scheme. "Traffic is down 20 per cent rather than the 15 per cent we expected, but it's creeping back towards the forecast number," he said.

The number of paying users entering the charging zone was estimated at 100,000, but TfL figures released last week showed an average of 97,000 paid each day. On a pro-rata basis that would equate to roughly £9m in revenues, although TfL said such a figure would be unofficial because it did not account for the number of drivers from central London – who paid in effect only 50p a day – or fleet- registered cars, each of which pays £5.50 per day.

But any deficit in the revenue collected could quickly be offset by the collection of fines from anyone caught in the zone who has not paid the charge. So far, 109,000 fines have been issued, but as many as a quarter are being challenged on claims that the numberplate was incorrectly read, or that criminals had "cloned" innocent drivers' plates and put them on their cars to avoid payment.

With continued non-payment, the £40 fines rise to £80, then £120 – which would quickly compensate for any shortfall in the number of road users, Professor Glaister said.

The charge was intended to cut congestion and raise £121m in the scheme's first two years for public transport projects, said Mr Livingstone. He expected a "level of public resistance" to the scheme, but that seemed to have melted.

A survey by London First found three in four business executives believed congestion charging's first month had been a success, and thought it was working. Only 3 per cent of those questioned thought the scheme was failing.

Retail sales inside the congestion-charging zone fell compared with the same period last year, but that could be partly due to the failure of London Underground's Central line, which is still out of service and would normally take passengers to destinations including Oxford Street and Marble Arch.

Paul Watters of the AA said extra congestion on the roads bordering the zone was inevitable. He added: "We believe it may take as long as a year to see the full results. And we think there will definitely be big problems around the ring road at some point that may lead to the possible meltdown we are concerned about."

WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE FIRST MONTH

* 1,940,000 payments have been made by motorists, 97,000 a day on average;

* 109,000 fines have been issued;

* One in four fines is being challenged;

* Traffic in the zone has fallen by 20 per cent, more than the 15 per cent forecast, but is gradually increasing;

* Bus journeys in the zone are much faster;

* Car journey times into London have fallen 5 per cent;

* In a survey 30 per cent of London business people said it had a positive effect, 65 per cent said it was neutral, and 5 per cent said it was negative.