Fact check: UK quarterly GDP outpaced the US, but annually it fell behind

In the first three months of 2024 the UK economy grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, but only 0.2% year-on-year.

The UK economy grew in the first three months of 2024 (Dominic Lipinski/PA) (PA Wire)

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said the UK’s economy is “outpacing Germany, France and the United States”.

Evaluation

The UK’s economy did grow more rapidly than those countries if comparing the first quarter of 2024 with the last quarter of 2023.

However. when comparing growth levels over the past year, the UK’s economy has outpaced Germany but is well behind both the US and France.

Forecasts by the International Monetary Fund suggest the UK will grow more slowly than the US and France this year.

The facts

The size of a country’s economy is generally measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 GDP in the UK rose by 0.6%. That was faster than 0.4% recorded in the US, 0.2% in Germany and 0.2% in France.

However, when comparing the first quarter compared with the same period a year earlier, the UK lagged behind. Year-on-year GDP rose just 0.2% in the UK.

That was better than Germany’s GDP which shrank by 0.2%, but well below the 3.0% rise the US enjoyed, or the 1.1% increase in France.

According to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast from April, the UK’s economy is expected to grow 0.5% this year.

The IMF forecasts that this year Germany will grow 0.2%, France will grow 0.7% and the US will grow 2.7%.

Links

Rishi Sunak speech (archived)

UK Parliament – GDP – International Comparisons: Key Economic Indicators (archived)

IMF – World Economy Outlook, April 2024 (archived)