Covid-19 death registrations continue to fall but excess deaths remain high

Deaths from all causes have been above average almost continuously since the end of March.

People view and leave messages at Sanctuary, a national memorial to honour the UK’s loss to Covid-19, in the Miners’ Welfare Park in Bedworth, Warwickshire (Jacob King/PA) (PA Wire)

Covid-19 deaths registered in England and Wales have fallen for the third week in a row, confirming they are now on a downwards trend.

However, the total number of deaths from all causes remains well above the average for the time of year.

Some 551 deaths registered in the seven days to August 19 mentioned coronavirus on the death certificate, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – down 7% on the previous week.

It is the lowest number of deaths since the week to July 8.

Death registrations rose during much of June and July due to the wave of infections caused by the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants of Covid-19.

But the figures peaked at 810 deaths in the week to July 29, since when they have been falling steadily.

This is a lower peak than in the two previous Omicron waves earlier in 2022, both of which saw weekly death registrations climb to between 1,000 and 1,500.

All the Omicron waves have peaked well below the Alpha wave in January 2021, when weekly deaths reached nearly 8,500.

The high levels of Covid antibodies among the population – either from vaccination or previous infection – mean the number of people seriously ill or dying from the virus this year has remained low.

The latest ONS figures also show that the total number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week to August 19 was 18.6% above the average for this time of year.

This is the highest level of so-called “excess deaths” for three months.

Deaths have been above average almost continuously since the end of March, following a period at the start of the year when no excess deaths were recorded.

Before 2022, death registrations were above average since the start of the pandemic, except for periods in summer 2020 and spring 2021.

The figures remain particularly high for deaths that have occurred in people’s own homes, where deaths registered in the week to August 19 were 29.5% above average.

Previous research by the ONS has suggested that heart disease, dementia and Alzheimer’s, cancer, and other causes have driven the large number of extra deaths in homes since the pandemic began, rather than coronavirus itself.

These trends suggest the pandemic “appears to have had an indirect effect” on private-home deaths, the ONS said.

“This could be because of a combination of factors which may include health service disruption, people choosing to stay away from healthcare settings or terminally ill people staying at home rather than being admitted to other settings for end-of-life care.”

A more recent factor is likely to be the periods of extreme heat that affected the UK in July and early August this year.

Data published last week by the ONS found the number of deaths that occurred in England on days of very hot weather in July were on average 7% higher than across the rest of the month.