What will the local and European elections tell us about where the country stands on Brexit?

Brexit Explained: The polls will give voters the chance to do more than simply decide who collects their bins

There are local elections in England, outside London, and in Northern Ireland on 2 May, as well as European parliament elections in the whole of the UK three weeks later. Together, they will give the nation the chance to say who should collect their bins and who should scrutinise EU law. And also to express its view on what is happening to Brexit.

A few predictions can be made with some certainty. First, that the Conservatives will do very badly. The standing of national parties always affects voting in local elections, so Tory councillors will suffer from the drop in support for Theresa May’s government. But at least they have some chance of campaigning on their local record – and it is worth remembering that most people are broadly satisfied with the services provided by their local council. The last time these seats were contested, in 2015, the Tories were six points ahead of Labour in vote share, according to figures from David Cowling; this time they will be lucky to be only six points behind.

In the European elections, on the other hand, there seems little to stop the Tory vote from collapsing altogether. These are elections that the prime minister repeatedly said would not be held because the UK would have left the EU by then. She still hopes they can be cancelled but this seems unlikely.

The Tories can expect to be punished for Brexit being postponed, which is widely if unfairly seen as a “betrayal” by Leave voters who would otherwise be voting Tory. It is not May’s easiest task to explain that we are still in the EU thanks to an unholy alliance of Tory MPs who would rather stay in the EU than vote for her deal and Labour MPs who refuse to vote for what they say they want, simply because it has been proposed by a Tory prime minister.

What is more, Tory activists have no interest in campaigning for these elections. Many of them would rather vote for the Brexit Party, led by Nigel Farage, because it offers a clear message, even if its actual policy of leaving the EU without a deal is undeliverable in the current political system. Instead, they are being asked to campaign for MEPs such as Sajjad Karim, top of the Tory list for North West England, who advocates a new referendum in order to remain in the EU.

So the European elections promise to be a fight between the two ends of the Brexit debate, with Farage being opposed by a rainbow alliance of Remain parties: the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Change UK, the new party set up by the independent group of MPs. The Brexit Party has got off to a good start for an outfit founded a few weeks ago, while the Remain parties are divided.

Analysis by John Burn-Murdoch for the Financial Times suggested the three UK-wide Remain parties could win 16 seats in England if they run a joint list – or if they stand aside in each other’s favour – but only seven seats if they stand separately.

Meanwhile, the Labour Party seems likely to do reasonably well, straddling Leave and Remain and equivocating about another referendum but avoiding blame for the Brexit deadlock.

These elections won’t tell us much, except that many Leavers are furious and lots of Remainers are confused by Brexit not happening. But I doubt that these election campaigns will help people understand the reason we are still in the EU, which is that a large proportion of those who voted to leave were not prepared to accept the only way it could be done – namely by approving the withdrawal agreement drawn up by Theresa May and Michel Barnier.