Trump warns US coronavirus death toll could reach 100,000 as Yale expert warns it already has

Experts predict death toll could be 150 per cent higher than official estimates

As Donald Trump increased his estimate of how many Americans could die in the coronavirus pandemic to 100,000, emerging data suggests that number could have already been passed.

It comes as new CDC projections estimate about 200,000 confirmed cases each day by the end of April (up from 25,000) and about 3,000 daily deaths by 1 June, nearly double the current level of about 1,750.

The CDC’s National Centre for Health Statistics has begun releasing weekly estimates of “excess deaths” related to the Covid-19 pandemic, calculated by comparing observed deaths from all causes with historical trends.

The US recorded an estimated 66,081 excess deaths since 1 January 2020 that were not classified as Covid-19 related, according to the data.

While that rate accelerated as the pandemic took hold in March, it began showing a slowdown from the week ending 11 April with no excess deaths estimated for the week ending 15 April.

A research team at the Yale School of Public Health believes that while excess deaths may not necessarily be related to coronavirus, they are a starting point for assessing the overall impact of the pandemic.

“I think people need to be aware that the data they’re seeing on deaths is very incomplete,” said Dan Weinberger, a Yale professor of epidemiology who led an analysis of excess deaths for The Washington Post.

“It’s hard to say how much higher, but our best guess might be it’s in the range of one and a half times higher.”

With the total number of deaths reported on 4 May by John Hopkins University to be 67,913, that would put the total number of deaths at roughly 101,000.

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“Look, we’re going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people. That’s a horrible thing,” Mr Trump said during a two-hour virtual town hall broadcast by FOX News on Sunday.

“I think we’re going to have a vaccine by the end of the year. The doctors would say, well you shouldn’t say that. I’ll say what I think...I think we’ll have a vaccine sooner than later.”

Mr Trump’s predictions on the total number of deaths have varied widely, going from 200,000 down to under 60,000 and up to 100,000 again, which he previously said would be a “very low number”.

New York City had the largest number of predicted excess deaths, with 17,152 since 1 January 2020, followed by New York state (10,044), New Jersey (7,819), Pennsylvania (7,319), and Michigan (3,334).

The CDC’s coronavirus guidelines instruct hospitals to report Covid-19 as the cause of death “for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death”.

In cases where a definite diagnosis cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely, it is acceptable to report Covid-19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed”.

The White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr Deborah Birx said during a press briefing in April that the US has taken a very liberal approach to mortality reporting

“The intent is right now that those if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” Ms Birx said.