Premature death could help explain why Donald Trump is president, suggests study

Places with large numbers of deaths from drugs, alcohol and suicide were far more likely to be convinced to vote for the Republican candidate in the US election

Premature death could help explain why Donald Trump is president, according to a major new study.

The research suggests that concerns about health and the prospect of an early death could have motivated people to vote for the Republican candidate in the 2016 election.

Comparing mortality rates with voting patterns shows that places where people tend to die young were also more likely to be convinced by Mr Trump, the paper shows.

And it found that the biggest gains for the Republicans came in places linked with death from drugs, alcohol, and suicide.

"Although life expectancy is increasing in many parts of the country, especially in urban areas, we're not seeing nearly the same gains in rural and middle America. We shouldn't underestimate the degree to which some portions of the country have been left behind in terms of their health. And it's not surprising that health disparities correspond with voting behaviour," said study leader Lee Goldman.

To conduct the study, Dr Goldman and his colleagues used data from each of the country's 3,112 counties to compare changes in presidential voting from 2008 to 2016 with death rates. They offset for other factors, such as ethnicity, income, education, unemployment rates, health insurance rates, and other factors.

It found that counties that had a net swing towards Mr Trump also had an average of 15 per cent higher death rates. The increase in death rates linked with alcohol, drugs, and suicide was also 2.5 times higher in places where there was a swing towards the Republicans.

"It's commonly argued that President Trump won by receiving more votes from people who have been left behind economically--especially older, less-educated, and less-urban, white voters," said Dr Goldman, who led the study at Columbia University Irving Medical Center and published in the Journal of General Internal Medicine.

"Based on our data, we can also say that changes in life expectancy were an independent factor in voting choices. Reduced health prospects are an important marker of dissatisfaction, discouragement, hopelessness, and fear--sentiments that may have resonated with voters who sided with President Trump.

"Although correlation does not imply causality, our findings also suggest that plausible improvements in life expectancy in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin might have shifted their electoral votes to Secretary Clinton."