Tobacco blamed for predicted 50 per cent rise in cancer cases

The aggressive marketing of cigarettes in the developing world is a key factor in a predicted rise of global cancer rates over the next 20 years, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said yesterday.

"The deadly smoking habit is particularly worrying in central and eastern Europe and many developing and newly industrialised countries," according to the WHO's World Cancer Report, the most comprehensive global examination of the disease.

"The tendency of youth around the world to start smoking at younger and younger ages will predispose them to substantial risks in later life."

The report also highlighted an ageing world population and health issues stemming from the Third World developing a taste for Western lifestyles as factors.

Global cancer rates are predicted to increase by 50 per cent by 2020, which means that the number of new cases diagnosed in the world each year will rise from about 15 million to more than 20 million.

Most of this increase would be due to longer lifespans, because the risk of cancer becomes higher with age, but a substantial proportion would be due to smoking, diet and more sedentary lifestyles adopted by the developing countries, said Bernard Stewart, co-editor of the report and director of cancer services in the Sydney health service.

"Governments, physicians and health educators at all levels could do much more to help people to change their behaviour to avoid preventable cancers," Dr Stewart said.

"If the knowledge, technology and control strategies outlined in the World Cancer Report were applied globally, we would make major advances in preventing and treating cancers over the next 20 years and beyond," he said.

The WHO believes at least a third of the cancer cases diagnosed each year can be prevented, another third can be cured with better treatment and the remaining third can be given better pain relief and palliative care.

More widespread vaccina-tion campaigns against diseases such as hepatitis would substantially reduce those cancers associated with chronic infections, and more common use of cervical screening would have a severe impact on cancer prevention, the report says. "Cancer is a disease that affects all of humankind. It's also a preventable disease and something can be done about it," Dr Stewart said.

He said that Finland and California were two areas of the world where cancer rates had fallen because prevention strategies had caused a reduction in tobacco consumption.

Rafael Bengoa, director of non-communicable diseases at the WHO, said strategies to prevent cancer should focus on diet and tobacco consumption if they were to have any impact.

"These factors were responsible for 43 per cent of all cancer deaths in 2000, that is 2.7 million fatalities, and 40 per cent of all new cases, that is 4 million new cancer cases," Dr Bengoa said.