World Cup advertising: Penalties of an early kick-off

The World Cup is usually a bonanza for TV ad sales. Not this year: a slot in an England game may cost half its 1998 price tag, writes Matthew Beard

When the England team were knocked out by Argentina in the last World Cup, advertising executives were about the only people in the country to see a silver lining to the grey cloud that descended.

The match, which featured a wonder goal by Michael Owen and David Beckham's "moment of madness", attracted a huge domestic audience of 25 million exclusively to ITV – many of them the free-spending young men whom advertisers adore.

The World Cup has proved a cash cow for ITV in the past, with advertisers lining up to promote beer, cars and sportswear to the captive male audience. But this year there are signs that the channel may struggle to match the commercial success of the World Cup in France four years ago.

The main problem is the time difference between Europe and the Far East. Most matches kick off at between 7.30am and 12.30pm UK time. Morning games get lower audiences, and advertisers have been reluctant to invest heavily in advance. Many are waiting for a home team success – and that might not happen.

The latest predictions from the booking agency Starcom Motive are that audiences for live games will be 20 per cent lower than for France 98, and weekday viewing figures may be down by as much as 40 per cent. England's first game against Sweden on 2 June is expected to attract an audience of 13 million – a phenomenal figure for a Sunday morning, but far less enticing to advertisers than a prime-time evening game.

The situation is fluid, of course. Bidding for World Cup slots has intensified in recent weeks, and at this late stage you could "gazump" a booked advertiser from a 30-second slot during England's first game for about £200,000. However, this compares to sums of more than £500,000 paid for half a minute's airtime for England games in 1998.

Adam Bishop, the head of TV at Starcom, says: "There will still be a big premium for the England games, but the difference will lie with fringe games." The 1998 group game between Morocco and Norway at 8pm was watched by 19 per cent of the crucial ABC1 male population, compared to the 3 per cent expected to tune in this time for Croatia's game against Japan at 7.30am.

The time difference also means that many live matches will be watched in pubs or at work – the kind of "unmetered" audience advertisers don't like. And in a further sign of twitchiness, none of the official sponsors took up their first refusal on ITV's programme sponsorship (the top-and-tail branding). ITV ended up selling this to Travelex, the money-transfer company, for £3m. Last time Vauxhall paid £4m.

Andrew Canter, the broadcast director of Media Planning Group, said: "There is just not the same buzz as with France. There aren't the same number of people travelling to the tournament and, without the hype in offices and after work, it is very difficult to get clients to bite."

In 1998, total TV advertising sales for June, when the tournament was on, were £131m. That was lower than predicted because of prohibitively high rates, but there was a splurge of spending in the two months before by advertisers unwilling to pay June's premium charges.

Four years on, advertising revenues for next month are forecast to be £135m, little more. It is a welcome improvement of 5 per cent on advertising for the same month last year – but last year was the worst recession in advertising in living memory.

ITV is pinning its hopes on Sven Goran Eriksson's side, or even unfancied Ireland, progressing beyond the group stage. If either side pulls that off, believes Steve Richards, the managing director of Grey Worldwide, it could prove a fillip to the industry not seen since Euro 96, when England's progress to the semi-finals meant a glut of last-minute ad bookings.

But ITV remains defiantly upbeat. Paul Tyrrell, a spokesman, claims the channel has stolen an advantage over the BBC by clinching the first rights to show highlights, packaged with analysis by Des Lynam and Paul Gascoigne for evening viewing. But traditionally, highlights do not engage viewers as much as live games, and viewing figures and programme loyalty trail off.

Nevertheless, most analysts agree that opting out of such a prestigious tournament is not an option for ITV. The World Cup, for which the BBC and ITV paid a combined £50m, is rivalled only by the European Champions' League, Formula 1 and the English Premier League in its appeal to the highly desirable advertising market of affluent men aged 16 to 34. Nike, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, Adidas and Carling are all committed to TV advertising during the tournament.

The World Cup has never been staged further east than Germany before, and part of the drive for a tournament in Asia has come from global brands eager to make inroads into the growing markets of China and Japan. Whether that will work, time will tell. But the time difference may hand an advantage to radio and the internet, both usually eclipsed by television.

John Owen of Starcom says there has never been a better chance for the net to prove it can make a profit by selling content rather than advertising. The world football governing body Fifa is charging a $20 flat fee to watch two-minute clips of games on its official Yahoo-run website. "We have heard a lot about the internet charging for content rather than ads, and the World Cup will provide the acid test. If it doesn't work then, when will it?" asks Mr Owen. He predicts that the official cup site will generate 240 million impressions in the UK alone.

Local commercial radio, whose largest audiences are at breakfast-time, may also benefit, if they can see off the challenge from Radio 5 Live, which will broadcast 49 live games during 250 hours of coverage. Media buyers are also encouraging clients towards regional evening papers, which can print match reports soon after the final whistle.

And the unusual timing of games has benefits for one group – those who cannot bear the thought of wall-to-wall football. Mr Owen says: "As with any World Cup there will be those whose only wish is to avoid it. This time they can – prime-time schedules won't be disrupted too much and there'll be plenty of content aimed just at them."