Number of populist leaders around world ‘falls to 20-year low’

Number of populist leaders now down to 11, the lowest since 2003, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change says

The number of populist leaders in power in the world today is at a 20-year low, according to a new paper published by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

The paper authored by Brett Meyer is titled “Repel and Rebuild: Expanding the Playbook Against Populism” and was published on Tuesday.

It reveals that while the number of populists in power was near an all-time high of 19 at the beginning of 2020, by the beginning of 2022 there were only 13 leaders, the lowest number since 2003.

“But while there were some notable cases of populist successes in 2022, we find that the number of populist leaders is now down to 11, the lowest since 2003,” the paper said.

Driving this decline in the number of populists in power is Latin America – historically a region where left-wing populism has thrived – where the number of populist leaders have reached a nearly 30-year low.

The research refers to Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro and Slovenia’s Janez Janša who were defeated in relatively close elections in 2022, and Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines who could not run for re-election.

In Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa was driven out of office by mass protests against his regime.

It also pointed to the US where voters delivered resounding defeats to candidates that had been loyal to former president Donald Trump in the US midterms but were willing to support moderate Republicans.

“Most notably, they lost every state-level election for offices involving election administration in swing states. While Congress blocked Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, US voters blocked his followers’ efforts to administer future ones in 2022,” the paper said.

In 2023, the paper said, the biggest election involving a populist leader will take place in Turkey, where Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) still has a polling lead.

The paper said the major challenge this year will be keeping populism at bay in those countries where there is an existing history of populist leadership.

“This is especially difficult with the widespread use of social media, which makes it easier for extreme voices to gain attention. Centrist politicians and policy advocates must resist the temptation to play this game, which may be great for their social-media following but tightens the ratchet of polarisation and can prompt an even stronger populist backlash,” it said.