UK to stop publishing Covid modelling data in new year

Figures were first published by the UKHSA in May 2020

UK health officials are set to halt the publication of modelling data on Covid-19 in the new year after more than two years of updates.

Dr Nick Watkins, chief data scientist at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), said the publication of such specific data is “no longer necessary” as Britain is now living with the virus thanks to vaccines and therapeutics.

It comes after more than 36,960 coronavirus cases were recorded in England in the week up to and including the 17 December, latest government figures show – a 29 per cent increase on the week before.

Covid data and insights – including positive cases, deaths, vaccination uptake and testing – will not be updated over the Christmas holiday period, and will be brought up to date on 5th January.

Some 508 deaths within 28 days of a positive test in England were recorded in the same week, while 7,158 were hospitalised in the week to and including the 19 December – marking a 36 per cent rise.

As of 23 December, the R range for England was 1.0 to 1.2 and the growth rate range was 0 per cent to +4 per cent, the UKHSA said.

The UKHSA published the R range and growth rate in England weekly during the height of the pandemic, which slowed to fortnightly updates from April this year.

The figures were first published by the government agency in May 2020 for all of the UK, until April 2021 when it was published for England only.

The reproductive rate, the R rate, refers to the number of people an infected person will pass the virus onto.

The next publication of the consensus statement on Covid on 6 January “will be the last”, the UKHSA Epidemiology Modelling Review Group (EMRG) said – a decision taken following a detailed review.

It said Covid-19 incidence data will continue to be accessible from the Office for National Statistics infection survey.

Mr Watkins, chairman of the EMRG, said: “During the pandemic, the R value and growth rate served as a useful and simple indicator to inform public health action and government decisions.

“Now that vaccines and therapeutics have allowed us to move to a phase where we are living with Covid-19, with surveillance scaled down but still closely monitored through a number of different indicators, the publication of this specific data is no longer necessary.

“We continue to monitor Covid-19 activity in a similar way to how we monitor a number of other common illnesses and diseases.

“All data publications are kept under constant review and this modelling data can be reintroduced promptly if needed, for example, if a new variant of concern was to be identified.”