UK health chiefs believed pandemic was ‘imminent’ in 1997, recommended reducing non-essential travel

Archived papers released this week reveal the UK was anticipating a flu pandemic nearly 25 years ago, and had drafted contingency measures to mitigate the spread of a virus expected to come from Asia

Former Northern Ireland senior medical officer Dr Elizabeth Mitchell drafted a contingency plan to respond to an anticipated flu outbreak in 1997 (PA)

Nearly 25 years ago, UK health chiefs predicted that a rapidly spreading influenza pandemic was “imminent” and developed contingency plans which included comprehensive vaccination programming and recommended against non-essential international travel.

The plans also warned of the possible closure of schools due to high rates of infection amongst teachers, to the point that schools could no longer function.

The plans were revealed in archived papers that were released on Tuesday. Archived files show that the Northern Ireland Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety received a UK-wide Contingency Plan for Pandemic Influenza in March 1997.

Within the plan, the UK’s top health scientists said that they believed that a new strain of the influenza virus was likely to emerge in Asia.

It stated: “The following conditions coexisting suggest that a pandemic is imminent – the emergence of a new strain of influenza virus which has a marked antigenic shift – a new virus; a high proportion of susceptible people in the population, ie with no immunity to the new virus either from vaccination or from previous infection with a similar virus; evidence that the new virus can spread and cause human disease.

“Typically, new shifted strains of influenza virus have emerged in the far east and spread via Asia or the antipodes towards Europe.

“If this occurs, some warning is likely before a new strain appears in the United Kingdom, although spread may be very rapid.”

The plan added that if the virus originated in China, as compared to other Asian countries, it would likely spread more quickly than the 1968 influenza pandemic – which killed between one and four million people globally – based on “the opening of China to trade and tourism”. It also found that a new pandemic would spread more widely due to increasing rates of international travel and greater use of rapid methods of transportation.

In response to the UK-wide contingency plan, Northern Ireland senior medical officer Dr Elizabeth Mitchell drafted a contingency plan for the region, which recommended a mass vaccination campaign, warned of the possibility of school closures and the delay of non-urgent medical treatment in hospitals.

Dr Mitchell’s plan, published in December 1997, states: “Immunisation with appropriately formulated influenza vaccine can reduce the impact of influenza, particularly among those population groups most at risk of serious illness or death.

“An early priority of contingency arrangements will therefore be necessary to secure supplies of vaccine against the new strain and to immunise as many people as possible.

“In general, it is unlikely that the spread of influenza can be halted, but some slowing could possibly be achieved by reducing unnecessary, especially long-distance travel, and by encouraging people suffering from the disease to stay at home.

“Closing schools is likely to cause some problems, especially for working parents, but would be an option to be considered, particularly if teacher absenteeism reached levels at which schools could not function.”

Her contingency plan also determined that non-emergent hospital admissions including those that were serious but not critical would have to be reviewed and “may need to be suspended” to ensure that enough beds were available to properly manage the influenza pandemic.

Dr Mitchell’s contingency plan was published around the same time as the outbreak of Avian influenza in Hong Kong, which resulted in 18 human infections and six fatalities. In response to these infections and fatalities, some 1.3 million chickens were killed by the government of Hong Kong in an effort to control the virus by depopulating poultry markets and chicken farms.

With additional reporting from PA