UK could have Europe’s highest coronavirus death toll, study suggests

Other experts more sceptical, figures 'based on assuming a rather simple mathematical model for whole course of epidemic'

The UK could become the worst-hit country in Europe during the coronavirus outbreak with up to 66,000 deaths, a study has suggested, though a statistics expert cautioned the model could change dramatically as the outbreak progresses.

Approximately 151,680 people will die across Europe during the “first wave” of the pandemic, researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine said.

Modelling suggested the UK, along with Germany, Norway and Greece, was still in the early stages of the outbreak and would witness a fast-rising death toll through a peak in the second and third weeks of April.

“We are expecting a foreboding few weeks for people in many parts of Europe,” said the IHME’s director, Dr Christopher Murray. “It seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for the United States.”

However, Professor Sylvia Richardson, co-chair of the Royal Statistical Society Task Force on Covid-19, said the claims should be treated with “considerable scepticism”.

“The IHME projections are based on very strong assumptions about the way the epidemic will progress, based mostly on using the experience in other countries to fit a smooth curve to the counts of deaths reported so far in the UK, rather than any modelling of the epidemic itself,” she explained.

“Methods like this are well known for being extremely sensitive, and are likely to change dramatically as new information comes in.”

She added: “These projections seem both extreme and too precise, especially allowing for the limitations in the daily reports. Time will tell, but I feel these current claims should be treated with considerable scepticism.”

And Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge was equally sceptical.

"I am very sceptical of these IHME projections, which are based on assuming a rather simple mathematical model for the whole course of the epidemic. I suspect they will change a lot as new data arrives - we shall see."

The IMHE’s model found deaths in the UK were expected to peak in the third week of April, with an estimated 2,932 deaths on 17 April. The research said Italy and Spain were likely at their peak number of deaths at the moment. Italy’s highest death toll so far came on 28 March, with 971 deaths, while Spain’s was on 3 April with 950 deaths.

The research showed the UK would not have enough hospital and intensive care unit beds to meet demand and predicted 66,314 total deaths by 4 August.

More than 6,000 people have died from Covid-19 in the UK so far.

The UK’s predicted death toll would put it ahead of Italy, with 20,000 deaths, followed by Spain and France, with 19,000 and 15,000 predicted deaths respectively.

One key factor was a nation’s hospital and intensive care bed capacity.

During the UK’s peak, over 102,000 hospital beds would be needed, according to the research, though only 17,765 are currently available. Some 25,000 ICU beds would also be required, despite the UK having only 799.

The IMHE’s research used data from local and national governments and the World Health Organisation, as well as age mortality rate data from China, Italy, South Korea and the US.

It comes as the government’s top adviser said the UK could be seeing the “beginning of change” in the number of new coronavirus cases

The government’s top scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, has said the UK could be seeing the “beginning of change” in the number of new cases of coronavirus as he outlined the new figures.

Sir Patrick said there had not been the “acceleration” in numbers that ministers had feared, as he revealed new UK coronavirus cases had fallen slightly to 3,634 on Tuesday, down from 3,802 the previous day and 5,903 on Sunday.

With the peak expected within days, the government postponed a review into whether the lockdown would be lifted, which was originally set to take place after three weeks.

The IMHE research said most regions in Italy and Spain have passed their peak death rate, as other nations approach their peak and some face peak mortality later in April.

“It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates,” Mr Murray said.

“Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates. Each nation’s trajectory will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.”

Mr Murray warned that easing precautions too soon during the “first wave” of the pandemic could lead to new rounds of infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

“To decrease the risk of a second wave in places where the first wave is controlled by robust social distancing, governments would need to consider mass testing, contact tracing, and quarantines for those infected until a vaccination is available, mass produced, and distributed widely,” Mr Murray said.