Coronavirus: UK cases could be doubling as fast as every 7 days, Sage warns
Government’s scientific advisors also reveal only 6 per cent of Britain’s population has developed Covid-19 antibodies over recent months
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Your support makes all the difference.The number of coronavirus infections across the UK may be doubling as quickly as every seven days, the government’s scientific advisory body has warned.
The latest estimate for the R transmission rate estimate for the UK is between 1.1 and 1.4, while the number of new infections is growing by up to 7 per cent every day.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said it was “concerned” that the current doubling time “could be as quick as every seven days nationally, and potentially even faster in some areas of the country”.
The group stated: “It’s even more important for people to remain disciplined and adhere to the current rules.”
Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, said the latest figures were “undoubtedly concerning … the number of new cases could grow to high levels quickly if the interventions are not sufficiently effective.”
It has also emerged Boris Johnson’s government was told by senior scientific advisors earlier this month that only 6 per cent of the UK population had antibodies to the coronavirus, according to minutes of the meetings released on Friday.
The Sage group warned that current levels of immunity in the UK population were unlikely to mitigate the impact of “a significant winter resurgence” of the virus.
Worryingly, the scientists also suggested there was evidence showing antibodies only offer immunity for between two to three months.
“Evidence from serology studies suggest a small proportion (around 6 per cent) of the UK population has antibodies to Covid-19,” according to the Sage minutes from 3 September.
“There is evidence of antibody levels waning over 2-3 months (medium confidence).”
The R rate in the north west of England and Midlands is the highest in the country at between 1.2 and 1.5. It is estimated at between 1.1 and 1.4 in London and the south east.
In the east of England the R rate is somewhere between 1 and 1.3, while in the south west it lies between 0.9 and 1.6.
Earlier today health secretary Matt Hancock announced new local restrictions for large parts of the North West, Midlands, and West Yorkshire to “curb rising infection rates” in England.
The latest local lockdown measures, which come into force on 22 September, will prevent multiple households in all affected areas from mixing in private homes and gardens – while a 10pm curfew will be imposed on pubs and restaurants across parts of the north west.
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