Lockdown roadmap: What is Northern Ireland’s route out of restrictions?

Arlene Foster has been criticised for setting out a semi-detailed plan with no clear dated timeline

Northern Ireland set out its five-step plan for easing coronavirus restrictions, across nine sectors of life and the economy, last week – though confusion remains around its lack of specific dates and details.

The roadmap out of lockdown, called “Moving Forward: The Executive’s Pathway Out of Restrictions”, does not use specific dates to map progress in the same way England’s plan does. Instead it sets out various health factors that will determine how and when the economy reopens.

Some have said this makes the blueprint too vague – with one DUP MP, Carla Lockhart, labelling it “clear as mud” – both first minister Arlene Foster and deputy first minister Michelle O’Neill defended it as “cautious” and “sustainable”.

Hospital admissions, the R number, potential new variants, vaccine rollout and the number of cases will all be used to track the progress of the virus, as will the mental wellbeing of people in the community, young people’s education and the impact on businesses and employers.

:: Follow Covid news live as Test and Trace slammed as ‘epic waste’

What restrictions will be lifted first?

Due to the plan’s lack of dates, it is hard to map out exactly what will reopen and when, though some primary schools have already reopened, which Mrs Foster said was a priority.

NI’s Primary 1 to Primary 3 pupils returned to the classroom on 8 March but, so far, all other children are scheduled only to return at some point after Easter.

Despite the backlash since the document was published, the executive said NI’s response would be led by “data not dates”.

Each of the nine sectors mentioned in the plan will emerge from lockdown in five key stages, which Mrs Foster detailed as: lockdown; cautious first steps; gradual easing; further easing; and preparing for the future.

The nine sectors in the plan include: home and community; sport and leisure; worship and ceremonies; education and young people; culture and entertainment; hospitality; work; retail; and travel and tourism.

While the roadmap gives some detail about the kinds of activities that could reopen in each sector, depending on the state of the virus, its ambiguous timeframe means there is no official date for any ‘step’ to have happened by.

An example of one of the sector’s timelines goes as follows:

Hospitality

Step one: All hospitality closed, except for takeaway sales which have an 11pm curfew.

Step two: Curfews lifted on takeaway services, and venues where alcohol cannot be consumed open again with table service. Six people from two different households can also meet outside at this point.

Step three: Venues where alcohol can be consumed, excluding pubs that do not serve food, reopen with table service.

Step four: Non-food-serving pubs open with table service, at which six people from two households can meet. Some entertainment relaxations will also occur here, such as outdoor events with a limited number of tickets allocated.

Step five: Bar service is permitted in “wet” pubs once more, with any number of people allowed to meet both indoors and outdoors. Live entertainment will be permitted in hospitality venues and nightclubs will reopen.

Is there any indication of timings?

There will be a rolling review of the roadmap every four weeks, in line with how regulations are currently reviewed, giving ministers and scientists time to assess how the easing of restrictions is affecting infection rates, cases and hospital admissions.

The review cycle – 16 March, 15 April, 13 May and 10 June – seems to be deliberately spread across four months, with ministers opting to take a slow approach to easing restrictions to ensure this lockdown is the country’s last.

Those are the dates when ministers legally must review the legislation but the plan says they can move “more rapidly on emerging priorities should the need arise before the next review point”, which means they are not tied to the dates for easing any restrictions.

Equally, though, ministers have said it is not a given that restrictions will be lifted on those review dates either.

Will each sector’s five-step plans move forward at the same time?

No. The plan clearly states it is possible “we may be in different phases across the nine pathways at any given time”, meaning someone could be at a work conference with dozens of people (step four of the “work” timeline) while, at the same time, pubs and shops down the road remain closed and shuttered (step two of the “hospitality” timeline).

The executive has said this approach will give Stormont maximum flexibility to progress, or step backwards, as and when the situation changes.